Trader consensus favors "No" at 64.5% implied probability for an official referendum announcement on a new Turkish constitution by year-end, reflecting the absence of concrete progress despite earlier momentum. President Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) prepared a constitutional reform roadmap in February 2026 and received a report from the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission outlining democratization steps, but no parliamentary vote or announcement has followed amid coalition challenges—AKP and allies hold about 323 seats in the Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without presidential approval. Recent emphasis on economic "reforms" declared April 27 by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, focusing on industrial transformation and incentives, signals competing priorities, with Erdoğan's 2028 term limit fueling power transition debates rather than urgent overhaul. Opposition from CHP and DEM parties adds hurdles to cross-aisle support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 64.5% implied probability for an official referendum announcement on a new Turkish constitution by year-end, reflecting the absence of concrete progress despite earlier momentum. President Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) prepared a constitutional reform roadmap in February 2026 and received a report from the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission outlining democratization steps, but no parliamentary vote or announcement has followed amid coalition challenges—AKP and allies hold about 323 seats in the Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without presidential approval. Recent emphasis on economic "reforms" declared April 27 by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, focusing on industrial transformation and incentives, signals competing priorities, with Erdoğan's 2028 term limit fueling power transition debates rather than urgent overhaul. Opposition from CHP and DEM parties adds hurdles to cross-aisle support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$760End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 64.5% implied probability for an official referendum announcement on a new Turkish constitution by year-end, reflecting the absence of concrete progress despite earlier momentum. President Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) prepared a constitutional reform roadmap in February 2026 and received a report from the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission outlining democratization steps, but no parliamentary vote or announcement has followed amid coalition challenges—AKP and allies hold about 323 seats in the Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without presidential approval. Recent emphasis on economic "reforms" declared April 27 by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, focusing on industrial transformation and incentives, signals competing priorities, with Erdoğan's 2028 term limit fueling power transition debates rather than urgent overhaul. Opposition from CHP and DEM parties adds hurdles to cross-aisle support.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$760End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 64.5% implied probability for an official referendum announcement on a new Turkish constitution by year-end, reflecting the absence of concrete progress despite earlier momentum. President Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) prepared a constitutional reform roadmap in February 2026 and received a report from the National Solidarity, Brotherhood, and Democracy Commission outlining democratization steps, but no parliamentary vote or announcement has followed amid coalition challenges—AKP and allies hold about 323 seats in the Grand National Assembly, short of the 360 needed to trigger a referendum without presidential approval. Recent emphasis on economic "reforms" declared April 27 by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, focusing on industrial transformation and incentives, signals competing priorities, with Erdoğan's 2028 term limit fueling power transition debates rather than urgent overhaul. Opposition from CHP and DEM parties adds hurdles to cross-aisle support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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