Trader consensus favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake worldwide by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—averaging about one per year globally per USGS historical data—and the absence of any reliable short-term seismic precursors, as earthquakes remain fundamentally unpredictable on timescales of weeks to months. U.S. Geological Survey monitoring shows no M8+ quakes in 2026 to date, with the largest recent events including a M7.4 in Indonesia's Maluku Sea on April 1 and a M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, alongside a powerful offshore Japan quake prompting a localized 1% risk uptick for that region per Japan Meteorological Agency assessments. Ongoing USGS real-time data feeds and seismic network updates will continue informing probabilities amid baseline uncertainty from tectonic stress accumulation on major faults like the Pacific Ring of Fire.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$59,757 Vol.
$59,757 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$59,757 Vol.
$59,757 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake worldwide by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—averaging about one per year globally per USGS historical data—and the absence of any reliable short-term seismic precursors, as earthquakes remain fundamentally unpredictable on timescales of weeks to months. U.S. Geological Survey monitoring shows no M8+ quakes in 2026 to date, with the largest recent events including a M7.4 in Indonesia's Maluku Sea on April 1 and a M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, alongside a powerful offshore Japan quake prompting a localized 1% risk uptick for that region per Japan Meteorological Agency assessments. Ongoing USGS real-time data feeds and seismic network updates will continue informing probabilities amid baseline uncertainty from tectonic stress accumulation on major faults like the Pacific Ring of Fire.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$59,757End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake worldwide by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—averaging about one per year globally per USGS historical data—and the absence of any reliable short-term seismic precursors, as earthquakes remain fundamentally unpredictable on timescales of weeks to months. U.S. Geological Survey monitoring shows no M8+ quakes in 2026 to date, with the largest recent events including a M7.4 in Indonesia's Maluku Sea on April 1 and a M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, alongside a powerful offshore Japan quake prompting a localized 1% risk uptick for that region per Japan Meteorological Agency assessments. Ongoing USGS real-time data feeds and seismic network updates will continue informing probabilities amid baseline uncertainty from tectonic stress accumulation on major faults like the Pacific Ring of Fire.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$59,757End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0+ megaquake worldwide by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events—averaging about one per year globally per USGS historical data—and the absence of any reliable short-term seismic precursors, as earthquakes remain fundamentally unpredictable on timescales of weeks to months. U.S. Geological Survey monitoring shows no M8+ quakes in 2026 to date, with the largest recent events including a M7.4 in Indonesia's Maluku Sea on April 1 and a M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, alongside a powerful offshore Japan quake prompting a localized 1% risk uptick for that region per Japan Meteorological Agency assessments. Ongoing USGS real-time data feeds and seismic network updates will continue informing probabilities amid baseline uncertainty from tectonic stress accumulation on major faults like the Pacific Ring of Fire.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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