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Politics·Louisiana Primary

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner

icon for LA-05 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Louisiana Primary

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner

Blake Miguez 60%

Michael Echols 26.0%

Rick Edmonds 8.5%

Misti Cordell 3.5%

Polymarket

$34,167 Vol.

Blake Miguez 60%

Michael Echols 26.0%

Rick Edmonds 8.5%

Misti Cordell 3.5%

Polymarket

$34,167 Vol.

Blake Miguez

$16,214 Vol.

60%

Michael Echols

$9,719 Vol.

34%

Rick Edmonds

$675 Vol.

9%

Misti Cordell

$712 Vol.

4%

Michael Mebruer

$499 Vol.

1%

Samuel Wyatt

$5,624 Vol.

<1%

Austin Magee

$725 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Blake Miguez leads trader consensus in the LA-05 Republican primary at 59.5% implied probability, driven by his Trump endorsement, dominant fundraising with $4 million cash on hand reported mid-April, and the NRA's sole backing in the field announced April 28, bolstering his conservative credentials as a state senator and author of Louisiana's constitutional carry law. State Rep. Michael Echols trails at 21.9% following a competitive Rainey Center poll in early April showing them near parity, but Miguez's financial edge and endorsements have widened the gap ahead of early voting starting May 2 and the May 16 primary to succeed Rep. Julia Letlow, who is vacating for a Senate bid. Rick Edmonds holds third at 8.1% amid a crowded field, with others trailing on limited resources and visibility.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$34,167
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Blake Miguez leads trader consensus in the LA-05 Republican primary at 59.5% implied probability, driven by his Trump endorsement, dominant fundraising with $4 million cash on hand reported mid-April, and the NRA's sole backing in the field announced April 28, bolstering his conservative credentials as a state senator and author of Louisiana's constitutional carry law. State Rep. Michael Echols trails at 21.9% following a competitive Rainey Center poll in early April showing them near parity, but Miguez's financial edge and endorsements have widened the gap ahead of early voting starting May 2 and the May 16 primary to succeed Rep. Julia Letlow, who is vacating for a Senate bid. Rick Edmonds holds third at 8.1% amid a crowded field, with others trailing on limited resources and visibility.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$34,167
End Date
May 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Blake Miguez" at 60%, followed by "Michael Echols" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $34.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" is "Blake Miguez" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Echols" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.