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icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·French Election

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·French Election

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

NEW
Apr 23, 2027
Polymarket

$857 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$20 Vol.

74%

Jordan Bardella

$116 Vol.

63%

Michel Barnier

$48 Vol.

42%

Valérie Pécresse

$5 Vol.

27%

Gabriel Attal

$148 Vol.

87%

Élisabeth Borne

$41 Vol.

73%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$0 Vol.

50%

Jean Castex

$21 Vol.

29%

Gérald Darmanin

$61 Vol.

68%

Sébastien Lecornu

$0 Vol.

27%

François Bayrou

$18 Vol.

27%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$41 Vol.

58%

Carole Delga

$50 Vol.

53%

Olivier Faure

$25 Vol.

59%

François Hollande

$44 Vol.

58%

Raphaël Glucksmann

$19 Vol.

44%

Manuel Bompard

$0 Vol.

28%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$95 Vol.

78%

Mathilde Panot

$32 Vol.

27%

Dominique de Villepin

$11 Vol.

62%

Marine Le Pen

$63 Vol.

40%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.With Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term in the April 2027 presidential election, France's fragmented political field—stemming from the 2024 legislative dissolution and subsequent hung parliament—has spurred a record number of early declarations in 2026. Following inconclusive March municipal elections, key announcements include Les Républicains leader Bruno Retailleau's formal party selection on April 19, Socialist deputy Jérôme Guedj's February 5 entry excluding a left primary, David Lisnard's March 31 exit from LR to run independently, and former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve's April 28 signal of readiness to rally center-left forces. Traders eye uncertainties like Marine Le Pen's July 7 eligibility appeal and the left's October 11 primary, which could trigger additional candidacies needing 500 parrainages by March 2027.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$857
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.With Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from a third consecutive term in the April 2027 presidential election, France's fragmented political field—stemming from the 2024 legislative dissolution and subsequent hung parliament—has spurred a record number of early declarations in 2026. Following inconclusive March municipal elections, key announcements include Les Républicains leader Bruno Retailleau's formal party selection on April 19, Socialist deputy Jérôme Guedj's February 5 entry excluding a left primary, David Lisnard's March 31 exit from LR to run independently, and former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve's April 28 signal of readiness to rally center-left forces. Traders eye uncertainties like Marine Le Pen's July 7 eligibility appeal and the left's October 11 primary, which could trigger additional candidacies needing 500 parrainages by March 2027.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$857
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gabriel Attal" at 87%, followed by "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 79%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is "Gabriel Attal" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 79%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.