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icon for Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?
Finance·AAPL

Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?

icon for Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?
Finance·AAPL

Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?

May 1

May 4

May 1

May 4

NEW
May 4, 2026
Polymarket

$83 Vol.

Polymarket

$260

$83 Vol.

98%

$265

$0 Vol.

98%

$270

$0 Vol.

97%

$275

$0 Vol.

95%

$280

$0 Vol.

83%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple Inc. (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release on April 30 beat consensus estimates with revenue of $111.18 billion surpassing $109.66 billion forecasts and EPS of $2.01 topping $1.95 expectations, driven by record $30.98 billion in services and Greater China strength despite iPhone supply constraints from TSMC's 3nm chips. Shares closed at $271.35 on April 30 before jumping over 3% premarket to near $279 on May 1 amid analyst upgrades—BofA raising its price target to $330 and consensus now around $300—plus a $100B buyback and dividend hike. Trader sentiment reflects momentum from AI catalysts like WWDC on June 8, though broader Nasdaq volatility and macro data could sway the May 4 close; implied probabilities hinge on sustained post-earnings buying.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple Inc. (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$83
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple Inc. (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple Inc. (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."Apple's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release on April 30 beat consensus estimates with revenue of $111.18 billion surpassing $109.66 billion forecasts and EPS of $2.01 topping $1.95 expectations, driven by record $30.98 billion in services and Greater China strength despite iPhone supply constraints from TSMC's 3nm chips. Shares closed at $271.35 on April 30 before jumping over 3% premarket to near $279 on May 1 amid analyst upgrades—BofA raising its price target to $330 and consensus now around $300—plus a $100B buyback and dividend hike. Trader sentiment reflects momentum from AI catalysts like WWDC on June 8, though broader Nasdaq volatility and macro data could sway the May 4 close; implied probabilities hinge on sustained post-earnings buying.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple Inc. (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$83
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 1, 2026, 8:00 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Apple Inc. (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "$260" at 98%, followed by "$265" at 98%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?" is "$260" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$265" at 98%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.