**Current Grok 4 performance on FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 sits at 12-14% according to Epoch AI evaluations, placing xAI behind leading OpenAI and Anthropic models that have reached 40-50% on comparable tiers.** This gap stems from FrontierMath’s design as hundreds of unpublished, expert-vetted problems requiring research-level reasoning that can take mathematicians hours or days, where most frontier models still score in the low double digits or below even with tool use. xAI’s emphasis on scaling compute and verifiable math/coding data in Grok 4 and prior releases has driven gains on easier benchmarks like AIME and GPQA, yet these have not translated to comparable FrontierMath lifts. With the June 30 resolution deadline just two weeks away and no announced model updates or capability jumps imminent, trader sentiment reflects the tight timeline and xAI’s current positioning in the competitive landscape. Any last-minute release or evaluation update could shift odds, but historical patterns show FrontierMath progress occurs in larger increments rather than rapid weekly gains.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,913 Vol.
28 feb 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Current Grok 4 performance on FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 sits at 12-14% according to Epoch AI evaluations, placing xAI behind leading OpenAI and Anthropic models that have reached 40-50% on comparable tiers.** This gap stems from FrontierMath’s design as hundreds of unpublished, expert-vetted problems requiring research-level reasoning that can take mathematicians hours or days, where most frontier models still score in the low double digits or below even with tool use.
xAI’s emphasis on scaling compute and verifiable math/coding data in Grok 4 and prior releases has driven gains on easier benchmarks like AIME and GPQA, yet these have not translated to comparable FrontierMath lifts. With the June 30 resolution deadline just two weeks away and no announced model updates or capability jumps imminent, trader sentiment reflects the tight timeline and xAI’s current positioning in the competitive landscape. Any last-minute release or evaluation update could shift odds, but historical patterns show FrontierMath progress occurs in larger increments rather than rapid weekly gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volumen
$21,913Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Current Grok 4 performance on FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 sits at 12-14% according to Epoch AI evaluations, placing xAI behind leading OpenAI and Anthropic models that have reached 40-50% on comparable tiers.** This gap stems from FrontierMath’s design as hundreds of unpublished, expert-vetted problems requiring research-level reasoning that can take mathematicians hours or days, where most frontier models still score in the low double digits or below even with tool use.
xAI’s emphasis on scaling compute and verifiable math/coding data in Grok 4 and prior releases has driven gains on easier benchmarks like AIME and GPQA, yet these have not translated to comparable FrontierMath lifts. With the June 30 resolution deadline just two weeks away and no announced model updates or capability jumps imminent, trader sentiment reflects the tight timeline and xAI’s current positioning in the competitive landscape. Any last-minute release or evaluation update could shift odds, but historical patterns show FrontierMath progress occurs in larger increments rather than rapid weekly gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$21,913Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Current Grok 4 performance on FrontierMath Tiers 1-3 sits at 12-14% according to Epoch AI evaluations, placing xAI behind leading OpenAI and Anthropic models that have reached 40-50% on comparable tiers.** This gap stems from FrontierMath’s design as hundreds of unpublished, expert-vetted problems requiring research-level reasoning that can take mathematicians hours or days, where most frontier models still score in the low double digits or below even with tool use. xAI’s emphasis on scaling compute and verifiable math/coding data in Grok 4 and prior releases has driven gains on easier benchmarks like AIME and GPQA, yet these have not translated to comparable FrontierMath lifts. With the June 30 resolution deadline just two weeks away and no announced model updates or capability jumps imminent, trader sentiment reflects the tight timeline and xAI’s current positioning in the competitive landscape. Any last-minute release or evaluation update could shift odds, but historical patterns show FrontierMath progress occurs in larger increments rather than rapid weekly gains.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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