Tesla's current California ride-hailing operations rely on supervised, Level 2 Full Self-Driving vehicles with human drivers under a standard chauffeur permit, as confirmed by the California Public Utilities Commission and DMV records showing no driverless testing or commercial AV applications filed. With unsupervised robotaxi service already active only in Austin, Texas, the company has not secured the layered state approvals required for autonomous passenger service in California, a process historically spanning months or years even after applications. Trader consensus at 97% "No" reflects this regulatory gap just 16 days from the June 30 deadline, though an unexpected fast-track permit or redefinition of "launch" criteria could theoretically alter the outcome despite the tight timeline.