**Ongoing military conflict and Iran's June 10, 2026, full closure announcement have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero, with daily transits at roughly 5–10 vessels versus the pre-war average of 100–160.** This stems from the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent IRGC enforcement via mines, missiles, and drones, creating a severe supply shock for 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Trader sentiment on the July 31 normalization market sits at 50.5% for Yes because the roughly six-week window allows time for potential de-escalation, diplomatic breakthroughs, or U.S. naval clearance operations, yet recent attacks on vessels and Iran's asymmetric capabilities sustain high uncertainty. Elevated Brent crude volatility and LNG supply concerns reinforce the balanced pricing, as markets weigh the geopolitical risk premium against incentives for resolution amid broader economic fallout. Key swing factors include upcoming military or diplomatic developments that could shift the conflict trajectory before the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average threshold is assessed.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
$5,096,778 Vol.
$5,096,778 Vol.
31 jul 2026
$5,096,778 Vol.
$5,096,778 Vol.
31 jul 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing military conflict and Iran's June 10, 2026, full closure announcement have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero, with daily transits at roughly 5–10 vessels versus the pre-war average of 100–160.** This stems from the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent IRGC enforcement via mines, missiles, and drones, creating a severe supply shock for 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Trader sentiment on the July 31 normalization market sits at 50.5% for Yes because the roughly six-week window allows time for potential de-escalation, diplomatic breakthroughs, or U.S. naval clearance operations, yet recent attacks on vessels and Iran's asymmetric capabilities sustain high uncertainty. Elevated Brent crude volatility and LNG supply concerns reinforce the balanced pricing, as markets weigh the geopolitical risk premium against incentives for resolution amid broader economic fallout. Key swing factors include upcoming military or diplomatic developments that could shift the conflict trajectory before the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average threshold is assessed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volumen
$5,096,778Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing military conflict and Iran's June 10, 2026, full closure announcement have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero, with daily transits at roughly 5–10 vessels versus the pre-war average of 100–160.** This stems from the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent IRGC enforcement via mines, missiles, and drones, creating a severe supply shock for 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Trader sentiment on the July 31 normalization market sits at 50.5% for Yes because the roughly six-week window allows time for potential de-escalation, diplomatic breakthroughs, or U.S. naval clearance operations, yet recent attacks on vessels and Iran's asymmetric capabilities sustain high uncertainty. Elevated Brent crude volatility and LNG supply concerns reinforce the balanced pricing, as markets weigh the geopolitical risk premium against incentives for resolution amid broader economic fallout. Key swing factors include upcoming military or diplomatic developments that could shift the conflict trajectory before the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average threshold is assessed.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$5,100,560Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing military conflict and Iran's June 10, 2026, full closure announcement have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero, with daily transits at roughly 5–10 vessels versus the pre-war average of 100–160.** This stems from the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent IRGC enforcement via mines, missiles, and drones, creating a severe supply shock for 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Trader sentiment on the July 31 normalization market sits at 50.5% for Yes because the roughly six-week window allows time for potential de-escalation, diplomatic breakthroughs, or U.S. naval clearance operations, yet recent attacks on vessels and Iran's asymmetric capabilities sustain high uncertainty. Elevated Brent crude volatility and LNG supply concerns reinforce the balanced pricing, as markets weigh the geopolitical risk premium against incentives for resolution amid broader economic fallout. Key swing factors include upcoming military or diplomatic developments that could shift the conflict trajectory before the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average threshold is assessed.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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