**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and Iran's June 2026 closure orders have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that full normalization will not occur by July 15.** Since late February 2026, following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian actions, daily transits have fallen from typical levels exceeding 100–160 vessels to often single digits or near zero, with major carriers suspending passages and war-risk insurance largely unavailable. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared a de facto blockade in early March and reinforced full closure to all vessels on or around June 10–11 amid renewed clashes, including reported strikes on shipping and US military responses. Limited transits have occurred via specific routes or with escorts, and threat assessments were downgraded modestly in early June while some vessels moved under heightened security. However, these remain far below normal volumes, with hundreds of tankers still affected and no verified diplomatic breakthrough restoring unrestricted, high-volume commercial flow. Recent announcements of potential deals have not produced sustained resumption, and the short window to July 15 leaves little room for de-escalation sufficient to achieve pre-crisis traffic levels. Traders price this sustained disruption and recent escalatory steps as the dominant driver of the 64% "No" probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El tráfico del Estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a la normalidad el 15 de julio?
¿El tráfico del Estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a la normalidad el 15 de julio?
Sí
NUEVO
$83,151 Vol.
NUEVO
$83,151 Vol.
15 jul 2026
Sí
NUEVO
$83,151 Vol.
NUEVO
$83,151 Vol.
15 jul 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and Iran's June 2026 closure orders have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that full normalization will not occur by July 15.**
Since late February 2026, following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian actions, daily transits have fallen from typical levels exceeding 100–160 vessels to often single digits or near zero, with major carriers suspending passages and war-risk insurance largely unavailable. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared a de facto blockade in early March and reinforced full closure to all vessels on or around June 10–11 amid renewed clashes, including reported strikes on shipping and US military responses.
Limited transits have occurred via specific routes or with escorts, and threat assessments were downgraded modestly in early June while some vessels moved under heightened security. However, these remain far below normal volumes, with hundreds of tankers still affected and no verified diplomatic breakthrough restoring unrestricted, high-volume commercial flow. Recent announcements of potential deals have not produced sustained resumption, and the short window to July 15 leaves little room for de-escalation sufficient to achieve pre-crisis traffic levels. Traders price this sustained disruption and recent escalatory steps as the dominant driver of the 64% "No" probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$83,151Fecha de finalización
15 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and Iran's June 2026 closure orders have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that full normalization will not occur by July 15.**
Since late February 2026, following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian actions, daily transits have fallen from typical levels exceeding 100–160 vessels to often single digits or near zero, with major carriers suspending passages and war-risk insurance largely unavailable. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared a de facto blockade in early March and reinforced full closure to all vessels on or around June 10–11 amid renewed clashes, including reported strikes on shipping and US military responses.
Limited transits have occurred via specific routes or with escorts, and threat assessments were downgraded modestly in early June while some vessels moved under heightened security. However, these remain far below normal volumes, with hundreds of tankers still affected and no verified diplomatic breakthrough restoring unrestricted, high-volume commercial flow. Recent announcements of potential deals have not produced sustained resumption, and the short window to July 15 leaves little room for de-escalation sufficient to achieve pre-crisis traffic levels. Traders price this sustained disruption and recent escalatory steps as the dominant driver of the 64% "No" probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$83,298Fecha de finalización
15 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran tensions and Iran's June 2026 closure orders have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic at a small fraction of pre-crisis levels, supporting trader expectations that full normalization will not occur by July 15.** Since late February 2026, following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian actions, daily transits have fallen from typical levels exceeding 100–160 vessels to often single digits or near zero, with major carriers suspending passages and war-risk insurance largely unavailable. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared a de facto blockade in early March and reinforced full closure to all vessels on or around June 10–11 amid renewed clashes, including reported strikes on shipping and US military responses. Limited transits have occurred via specific routes or with escorts, and threat assessments were downgraded modestly in early June while some vessels moved under heightened security. However, these remain far below normal volumes, with hundreds of tankers still affected and no verified diplomatic breakthrough restoring unrestricted, high-volume commercial flow. Recent announcements of potential deals have not produced sustained resumption, and the short window to July 15 leaves little room for de-escalation sufficient to achieve pre-crisis traffic levels. Traders price this sustained disruption and recent escalatory steps as the dominant driver of the 64% "No" probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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