Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97% implied probability against Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, driven by the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid Kuiper Belt objects sharing its path. Recent remarks by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman during a Senate hearing, advocating for restoration and announcing draft papers to challenge the status quo, have sparked debate but lack authority, as only the IAU can amend the definition, with no general assembly or vote scheduled before the deadline (next GA in August 2026). Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented emergency IAU resolution or rapid scientific consensus reversal, both highly improbable given historical precedent and procedural timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Plutón reclasificado como planeta para el 30 de junio?
¿Plutón reclasificado como planeta para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$19,464 Vol.
$19,464 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$19,464 Vol.
$19,464 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97% implied probability against Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, driven by the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid Kuiper Belt objects sharing its path. Recent remarks by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman during a Senate hearing, advocating for restoration and announcing draft papers to challenge the status quo, have sparked debate but lack authority, as only the IAU can amend the definition, with no general assembly or vote scheduled before the deadline (next GA in August 2026). Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented emergency IAU resolution or rapid scientific consensus reversal, both highly improbable given historical precedent and procedural timelines.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
Mercado abierto: Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$19,464Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97% implied probability against Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, driven by the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid Kuiper Belt objects sharing its path. Recent remarks by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman during a Senate hearing, advocating for restoration and announcing draft papers to challenge the status quo, have sparked debate but lack authority, as only the IAU can amend the definition, with no general assembly or vote scheduled before the deadline (next GA in August 2026). Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented emergency IAU resolution or rapid scientific consensus reversal, both highly improbable given historical precedent and procedural timelines.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.
This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
Volumen
$19,464Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97% implied probability against Pluto's reclassification as a planet by June 30, driven by the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) enduring 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid Kuiper Belt objects sharing its path. Recent remarks by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman during a Senate hearing, advocating for restoration and announcing draft papers to challenge the status quo, have sparked debate but lack authority, as only the IAU can amend the definition, with no general assembly or vote scheduled before the deadline (next GA in August 2026). Realistic shifts would require an unprecedented emergency IAU resolution or rapid scientific consensus reversal, both highly improbable given historical precedent and procedural timelines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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