Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability for no new COVID variant of concern (VOC) before 2027, anchored by WHO and ECDC assessments as of late April 2026 confirming no SARS-CoV-2 strains currently meet VOC criteria despite the rise of highly mutated Omicron sublineage BA.3.2 ("Cicada"). This variant, with over 70 spike protein mutations, has spread to dozens of U.S. states and European countries since early April, yet early surveillance data from CDC and global trackers show no uptick in hospitalizations, deaths, or public health risk beyond prior strains—keeping it as a variant under monitoring. High population immunity from vaccines and infections, coupled with ongoing genomic surveillance, underpins the low odds of escalation, though unexpected surges in severity could prompt reclassification ahead of year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$237,612 Vol.
$237,612 Vol.
Sí
$237,612 Vol.
$237,612 Vol.
The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Mercado abierto: Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 84% implied probability for no new COVID variant of concern (VOC) before 2027, anchored by WHO and ECDC assessments as of late April 2026 confirming no SARS-CoV-2 strains currently meet VOC criteria despite the rise of highly mutated Omicron sublineage BA.3.2 ("Cicada"). This variant, with over 70 spike protein mutations, has spread to dozens of U.S. states and European countries since early April, yet early surveillance data from CDC and global trackers show no uptick in hospitalizations, deaths, or public health risk beyond prior strains—keeping it as a variant under monitoring. High population immunity from vaccines and infections, coupled with ongoing genomic surveillance, underpins the low odds of escalation, though unexpected surges in severity could prompt reclassification ahead of year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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