Recent May 2026 outbreaks of Andes virus hantavirus, including a cruise ship cluster, have reinforced trader consensus around the 94.5% implied probability of no approved vaccine by year-end, as multiple DNA, mRNA, and subunit candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 trials with only limited neutralizing antibody data in small human studies. Official sources such as the CDC and WHO note no licensed options for general use outside South Korea’s Hantavax for specific strains, while development faces typical multi-year regulatory pathways, modest commercial incentives due to sporadic transmission, and the need for larger efficacy trials. Accelerated government funding or rapid Phase advancement could theoretically shift timelines, though current model consensus and historical precedents indicate such scenarios remain unlikely before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
$120,311 Vol.
$120,311 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$120,311 Vol.
$120,311 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent May 2026 outbreaks of Andes virus hantavirus, including a cruise ship cluster, have reinforced trader consensus around the 94.5% implied probability of no approved vaccine by year-end, as multiple DNA, mRNA, and subunit candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 trials with only limited neutralizing antibody data in small human studies. Official sources such as the CDC and WHO note no licensed options for general use outside South Korea’s Hantavax for specific strains, while development faces typical multi-year regulatory pathways, modest commercial incentives due to sporadic transmission, and the need for larger efficacy trials. Accelerated government funding or rapid Phase advancement could theoretically shift timelines, though current model consensus and historical precedents indicate such scenarios remain unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volumen
$120,311Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent May 2026 outbreaks of Andes virus hantavirus, including a cruise ship cluster, have reinforced trader consensus around the 94.5% implied probability of no approved vaccine by year-end, as multiple DNA, mRNA, and subunit candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 trials with only limited neutralizing antibody data in small human studies. Official sources such as the CDC and WHO note no licensed options for general use outside South Korea’s Hantavax for specific strains, while development faces typical multi-year regulatory pathways, modest commercial incentives due to sporadic transmission, and the need for larger efficacy trials. Accelerated government funding or rapid Phase advancement could theoretically shift timelines, though current model consensus and historical precedents indicate such scenarios remain unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$120,311Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent May 2026 outbreaks of Andes virus hantavirus, including a cruise ship cluster, have reinforced trader consensus around the 94.5% implied probability of no approved vaccine by year-end, as multiple DNA, mRNA, and subunit candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase 1 trials with only limited neutralizing antibody data in small human studies. Official sources such as the CDC and WHO note no licensed options for general use outside South Korea’s Hantavax for specific strains, while development faces typical multi-year regulatory pathways, modest commercial incentives due to sporadic transmission, and the need for larger efficacy trials. Accelerated government funding or rapid Phase advancement could theoretically shift timelines, though current model consensus and historical precedents indicate such scenarios remain unlikely before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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