Recent strong May jobs data and persistent inflation—exacerbated by geopolitical tensions—have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75%, with CME FedWatch Tool pricing a 66% probability of at least one 25 basis point hike by December, up from earlier cut expectations. Economists largely forecast no change through 2026, though futures markets imply a modest tightening path. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady ahead of the updated dot plot, with labor market resilience and inflation trajectory serving as key swing factors for subsequent decisions in September and beyond.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$171,818 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Reunión de junio
1%
Reunión de julio
7%
Reunión de septiembre
25%
Reunión de octubre
36%
$171,818 Vol.
Reunión de junio
$30,592 Vol.
1%
Reunión de julio
$2,681 Vol.
7%
Reunión de septiembre
$4,058 Vol.
25%
Reunión de octubre
$3,179 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong May jobs data and persistent inflation—exacerbated by geopolitical tensions—have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75%, with CME FedWatch Tool pricing a 66% probability of at least one 25 basis point hike by December, up from earlier cut expectations. Economists largely forecast no change through 2026, though futures markets imply a modest tightening path. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady ahead of the updated dot plot, with labor market resilience and inflation trajectory serving as key swing factors for subsequent decisions in September and beyond.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$171,818Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strong May jobs data and persistent inflation—exacerbated by geopolitical tensions—have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75%, with CME FedWatch Tool pricing a 66% probability of at least one 25 basis point hike by December, up from earlier cut expectations. Economists largely forecast no change through 2026, though futures markets imply a modest tightening path. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady ahead of the updated dot plot, with labor market resilience and inflation trajectory serving as key swing factors for subsequent decisions in September and beyond.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$171,818Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strong May jobs data and persistent inflation—exacerbated by geopolitical tensions—have shifted trader sentiment toward a higher likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50%-3.75%, with CME FedWatch Tool pricing a 66% probability of at least one 25 basis point hike by December, up from earlier cut expectations. Economists largely forecast no change through 2026, though futures markets imply a modest tightening path. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady ahead of the updated dot plot, with labor market resilience and inflation trajectory serving as key swing factors for subsequent decisions in September and beyond.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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