Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range at 57.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from May 9-11, 2026, aligning with his recent pace of roughly 11-20 posts per day during the OpenAI trial's final weeks, where court appearances through early May dipped output to a 16-post daily average before rebounding to 34 total over May 7-9. The <40 bin at 30% captures bets on sustained moderation post-trial testimony and factory visits like Intel's Oregon fab, amid French prosecutor probes sparking viral retorts. Higher bins trail due to no major catalysts like product launches; watch for SpaceX updates or political memes that could spike engagement before May 11 close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado40-64 56%
<40 33%
65-89 11%
90-114 1.9%
NUEVO
$124,234 Vol.
NUEVO
$124,234 Vol.
11 may 2026
<40
33%
40-64
56%
65-89
11%
90-114
2%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 56%
<40 33%
65-89 11%
90-114 1.9%
NUEVO
$124,234 Vol.
NUEVO
$124,234 Vol.
11 may 2026
<40
$13,785 Vol.
33%
40-64
$8,071 Vol.
56%
65-89
$6,990 Vol.
11%
90-114
$34,806 Vol.
2%
115-139
$13,460 Vol.
1%
140-164
$14,933 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$9,898 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$7,358 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$10,550 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,458 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range at 57.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from May 9-11, 2026, aligning with his recent pace of roughly 11-20 posts per day during the OpenAI trial's final weeks, where court appearances through early May dipped output to a 16-post daily average before rebounding to 34 total over May 7-9. The <40 bin at 30% captures bets on sustained moderation post-trial testimony and factory visits like Intel's Oregon fab, amid French prosecutor probes sparking viral retorts. Higher bins trail due to no major catalysts like product launches; watch for SpaceX updates or political memes that could spike engagement before May 11 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: May 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volumen
$124,234Fecha de finalización
11 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range at 57.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from May 9-11, 2026, aligning with his recent pace of roughly 11-20 posts per day during the OpenAI trial's final weeks, where court appearances through early May dipped output to a 16-post daily average before rebounding to 34 total over May 7-9. The <40 bin at 30% captures bets on sustained moderation post-trial testimony and factory visits like Intel's Oregon fab, amid French prosecutor probes sparking viral retorts. Higher bins trail due to no major catalysts like product launches; watch for SpaceX updates or political memes that could spike engagement before May 11 close.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 9 12:00 PM ET to May 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$124,234Fecha de finalización
11 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range at 57.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from May 9-11, 2026, aligning with his recent pace of roughly 11-20 posts per day during the OpenAI trial's final weeks, where court appearances through early May dipped output to a 16-post daily average before rebounding to 34 total over May 7-9. The <40 bin at 30% captures bets on sustained moderation post-trial testimony and factory visits like Intel's Oregon fab, amid French prosecutor probes sparking viral retorts. Higher bins trail due to no major catalysts like product launches; watch for SpaceX updates or political memes that could spike engagement before May 11 close.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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