Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the 40-64 tweet range at 51.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from April 30 to May 2, driven by his recent posting slowdown to 10-13 tweets per day on April 28-30, down sharply from 19-48 earlier in the week. This dip aligns with high-profile distractions including Musk's testimony in the ongoing Musk v. Altman trial on April 29 and a SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch that day, tempering his typical viral engagement bursts. The 65-89 bin trails at 20% amid historical volatility—averaging 23-28 daily last week—but traders anticipate sustained moderation through the holiday weekend, with May 1 Starlink launch as a potential catalyst for uptick, though uncertainty lingers in his unpredictable social media cadence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado40-64 52%
65-89 21%
Menos de 40 18%
90-114 4.3%
$418,300 Vol.
$418,300 Vol.
2 may 2026
Menos de 40
18%
40-64
52%
65-89
21%
90-114
4%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
Más de 240
<1%
40-64 52%
65-89 21%
Menos de 40 18%
90-114 4.3%
$418,300 Vol.
$418,300 Vol.
2 may 2026
Menos de 40
$66,313 Vol.
18%
40-64
$29,703 Vol.
52%
65-89
$27,761 Vol.
21%
90-114
$42,405 Vol.
4%
115-139
$30,662 Vol.
1%
140-164
$23,482 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$30,599 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$75,182 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$48,515 Vol.
<1%
Más de 240
$44,209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the 40-64 tweet range at 51.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from April 30 to May 2, driven by his recent posting slowdown to 10-13 tweets per day on April 28-30, down sharply from 19-48 earlier in the week. This dip aligns with high-profile distractions including Musk's testimony in the ongoing Musk v. Altman trial on April 29 and a SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch that day, tempering his typical viral engagement bursts. The 65-89 bin trails at 20% amid historical volatility—averaging 23-28 daily last week—but traders anticipate sustained moderation through the holiday weekend, with May 1 Starlink launch as a potential catalyst for uptick, though uncertainty lingers in his unpredictable social media cadence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volumen
$418,300Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the 40-64 tweet range at 51.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from April 30 to May 2, driven by his recent posting slowdown to 10-13 tweets per day on April 28-30, down sharply from 19-48 earlier in the week. This dip aligns with high-profile distractions including Musk's testimony in the ongoing Musk v. Altman trial on April 29 and a SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch that day, tempering his typical viral engagement bursts. The 65-89 bin trails at 20% amid historical volatility—averaging 23-28 daily last week—but traders anticipate sustained moderation through the holiday weekend, with May 1 Starlink launch as a potential catalyst for uptick, though uncertainty lingers in his unpredictable social media cadence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$418,300Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors the 40-64 tweet range at 51.5% implied probability for Elon Musk's X posts from April 30 to May 2, driven by his recent posting slowdown to 10-13 tweets per day on April 28-30, down sharply from 19-48 earlier in the week. This dip aligns with high-profile distractions including Musk's testimony in the ongoing Musk v. Altman trial on April 29 and a SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch that day, tempering his typical viral engagement bursts. The 65-89 bin trails at 20% amid historical volatility—averaging 23-28 daily last week—but traders anticipate sustained moderation through the holiday weekend, with May 1 Starlink launch as a potential catalyst for uptick, though uncertainty lingers in his unpredictable social media cadence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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