Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs the 40-64 tweet range at 48% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, reflecting his recent daily posting average of around 26 posts over the prior week, per real-time trackers like xtracker, tempered by quieter days like single-digit outputs earlier in April amid fluctuating engagements on Tesla updates, xAI announcements, and political memes. A 43-post spike on April 23 has cooled, with no major catalysts—such as Starship launches or earnings calls—in the last 48 hours to drive a surge, boosting the moderate bin ahead of 65-89 (18.5%) while <40 (26.5%) captures downside risk from lulls. Watch for viral threads or replies that could accelerate volume before the May 2 cutoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado40-64 48%
Menos de 40 27%
65-89 19%
90-114 6%
$403,609 Vol.
$403,609 Vol.
2 may 2026
Menos de 40
27%
40-64
48%
65-89
19%
90-114
6%
115-139
2%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
Más de 240
<1%
40-64 48%
Menos de 40 27%
65-89 19%
90-114 6%
$403,609 Vol.
$403,609 Vol.
2 may 2026
Menos de 40
$62,936 Vol.
27%
40-64
$29,037 Vol.
48%
65-89
$26,745 Vol.
19%
90-114
$41,289 Vol.
6%
115-139
$28,049 Vol.
2%
140-164
$23,194 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$30,427 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$75,032 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$45,195 Vol.
<1%
Más de 240
$41,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs the 40-64 tweet range at 48% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, reflecting his recent daily posting average of around 26 posts over the prior week, per real-time trackers like xtracker, tempered by quieter days like single-digit outputs earlier in April amid fluctuating engagements on Tesla updates, xAI announcements, and political memes. A 43-post spike on April 23 has cooled, with no major catalysts—such as Starship launches or earnings calls—in the last 48 hours to drive a surge, boosting the moderate bin ahead of 65-89 (18.5%) while <40 (26.5%) captures downside risk from lulls. Watch for viral threads or replies that could accelerate volume before the May 2 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volumen
$403,609Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs the 40-64 tweet range at 48% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, reflecting his recent daily posting average of around 26 posts over the prior week, per real-time trackers like xtracker, tempered by quieter days like single-digit outputs earlier in April amid fluctuating engagements on Tesla updates, xAI announcements, and political memes. A 43-post spike on April 23 has cooled, with no major catalysts—such as Starship launches or earnings calls—in the last 48 hours to drive a surge, boosting the moderate bin ahead of 65-89 (18.5%) while <40 (26.5%) captures downside risk from lulls. Watch for viral threads or replies that could accelerate volume before the May 2 cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 30 12:00 PM ET to May 2, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$403,609Fecha de finalización
2 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket pegs the 40-64 tweet range at 48% implied probability for Elon Musk's X activity from April 30 to May 2, reflecting his recent daily posting average of around 26 posts over the prior week, per real-time trackers like xtracker, tempered by quieter days like single-digit outputs earlier in April amid fluctuating engagements on Tesla updates, xAI announcements, and political memes. A 43-post spike on April 23 has cooled, with no major catalysts—such as Starship launches or earnings calls—in the last 48 hours to drive a surge, boosting the moderate bin ahead of 65-89 (18.5%) while <40 (26.5%) captures downside risk from lulls. Watch for viral threads or replies that could accelerate volume before the May 2 cutoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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