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Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

icon for Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

$44,577 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$44,577 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$23,653 Vol.

1%

December 31

$20,924 Vol.

43%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Takaichi became Japan's prime minister in October 2025 and held her first meeting with Xi Jinping on the APEC sidelines in South Korea later that month, where both sides pledged constructive, stable bilateral ties amid discussions on rare earths and security.** Tensions escalated in November 2025 after her parliamentary remarks framing a potential Taiwan contingency as an existential threat to Japan, prompting a diplomatic row and Chinese criticism of Japan's defense posture. Her Liberal Democratic Party secured a landslide victory in the February 2026 snap election, consolidating her position. In mid-May 2026, Xi sharply criticized Takaichi's "remilitarization" policies by name during his Beijing summit with U.S. President Trump. Japanese officials have since sought a follow-up leader-level meeting, with the November 2026 APEC summit in China viewed as a potential venue, though ongoing frictions over Taiwan, defense spending, and regional security continue to shape the outlook reflected in current trader pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,577
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Takaichi became Japan's prime minister in October 2025 and held her first meeting with Xi Jinping on the APEC sidelines in South Korea later that month, where both sides pledged constructive, stable bilateral ties amid discussions on rare earths and security.** Tensions escalated in November 2025 after her parliamentary remarks framing a potential Taiwan contingency as an existential threat to Japan, prompting a diplomatic row and Chinese criticism of Japan's defense posture. Her Liberal Democratic Party secured a landslide victory in the February 2026 snap election, consolidating her position. In mid-May 2026, Xi sharply criticized Takaichi's "remilitarization" policies by name during his Beijing summit with U.S. President Trump. Japanese officials have since sought a follow-up leader-level meeting, with the November 2026 APEC summit in China viewed as a potential venue, though ongoing frictions over Taiwan, defense spending, and regional security continue to shape the outlook reflected in current trader pricing.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$44,577
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sanae Takaichi meets with Xi Jinping between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Takaichi and Jinping are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 43%, followed by "June 30" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" has generated $44.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" is "December 31" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.