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Politics·Democratic Party

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

icon for Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Politics·Democratic Party

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

68% chance
Polymarket
NEW
68% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Democratic sweep of the core four 2026 Senate races—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—at 67.5%, reflecting recent polling gains and analyst upgrades amid a competitive midterm landscape where Republicans defend a Senate majority. An April 30 North Carolina poll showed Democrat Roy Cooper leading incumbent Thom Tillis, bolstering flip prospects, while Maine Gov. Janet Mills suspended her bid on April 29 to endorse Graham Platner against Sen. Susan Collins. The Cook Political Report shifted all four battlegrounds toward Democrats on April 13, aligning with leads for incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia and strong positioning in Michigan post-Gary Peters' retirement. Georgia's May 19 primary and August Michigan primaries loom as potential catalysts, underscoring the closely contested path where any upset could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$3,607
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Democratic sweep of the core four 2026 Senate races—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine—at 67.5%, reflecting recent polling gains and analyst upgrades amid a competitive midterm landscape where Republicans defend a Senate majority. An April 30 North Carolina poll showed Democrat Roy Cooper leading incumbent Thom Tillis, bolstering flip prospects, while Maine Gov. Janet Mills suspended her bid on April 29 to endorse Graham Platner against Sen. Susan Collins. The Cook Political Report shifted all four battlegrounds toward Democrats on April 13, aligning with leads for incumbent Jon Ossoff in Georgia and strong positioning in Michigan post-Gary Peters' retirement. Georgia's May 19 primary and August Michigan primaries loom as potential catalysts, underscoring the closely contested path where any upset could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
Volume
$3,607
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 68% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 68¢, the market collectively assigns a 68% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?" is 68% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 68% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.