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icon for Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

icon for Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$3,095 Vol.

Polymarket

JetBlue

$2,147 Vol.

14%

Frontier Airlines

$237 Vol.

13%

Allegiant

$171 Vol.

9%

American Airlines

$280 Vol.

9%

Alaska Airlines

$311 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Surging jet fuel prices, now tracking $4.10–$4.30 per gallon for Q2 2026 amid U.S.-Iran tensions, have triggered Spirit Airlines' Chapter 7 liquidation announcement on May 2 after two prior Chapter 11 filings and a failed $500 million bailout, erasing its recovery plan premised on $2.24/gallon costs. Trader consensus highlights low-cost carriers' vulnerability—JetBlue faces founder-projected $1.3 billion losses if fuel stays elevated, despite CEO vows of ample cash reserves—while American Airlines slashed full-year earnings guidance to potential losses from $4 billion higher fuel expenses. Majors like Delta and United maintain stronger balance sheets and free cash flow. Upcoming Q2 earnings and summer demand will test pricing power and margin resilience.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,095
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Surging jet fuel prices, now tracking $4.10–$4.30 per gallon for Q2 2026 amid U.S.-Iran tensions, have triggered Spirit Airlines' Chapter 7 liquidation announcement on May 2 after two prior Chapter 11 filings and a failed $500 million bailout, erasing its recovery plan premised on $2.24/gallon costs. Trader consensus highlights low-cost carriers' vulnerability—JetBlue faces founder-projected $1.3 billion losses if fuel stays elevated, despite CEO vows of ample cash reserves—while American Airlines slashed full-year earnings guidance to potential losses from $4 billion higher fuel expenses. Majors like Delta and United maintain stronger balance sheets and free cash flow. Upcoming Q2 earnings and summer demand will test pricing power and margin resilience.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,095
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 2:27 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JetBlue" at 14%, followed by "Frontier Airlines" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?" is "JetBlue" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Frontier Airlines" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.