Trader consensus prices Aston Villa at 54.5% implied probability to win this Europa League semi-final second leg at Villa Park, reflecting strong home form and Unai Emery's unbeaten record in his last five semis, despite a grueling schedule. Nottingham Forest, trading at 21%, face defensive vulnerabilities with key absences like Murillo, Jair Cunha, Ibrahim Sangare, and Callum Hudson-Odoi confirmed out for the first leg on May 1, potentially impacting their backline depth. Villa monitor Amadou Onana's knee issue and Ollie Watkins' thigh doubt after a recent 1-0 Premier League loss to Fulham, but their Europa campaign momentum—bolstered by a competitive 1-1 league draw versus Forest in April—positions them as narrow favorites in this closely contested Midlands derby, with draw at 28% underscoring upset potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIf Aston Villa FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 24, 2026, 2:31 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.uefa.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Aston Villa FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.
If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No".
This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Apr 24, 2026, 2:31 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.uefa.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices Aston Villa at 54.5% implied probability to win this Europa League semi-final second leg at Villa Park, reflecting strong home form and Unai Emery's unbeaten record in his last five semis, despite a grueling schedule. Nottingham Forest, trading at 21%, face defensive vulnerabilities with key absences like Murillo, Jair Cunha, Ibrahim Sangare, and Callum Hudson-Odoi confirmed out for the first leg on May 1, potentially impacting their backline depth. Villa monitor Amadou Onana's knee issue and Ollie Watkins' thigh doubt after a recent 1-0 Premier League loss to Fulham, but their Europa campaign momentum—bolstered by a competitive 1-1 league draw versus Forest in April—positions them as narrow favorites in this closely contested Midlands derby, with draw at 28% underscoring upset potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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