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World·RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?

icon for Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?
World·RBA

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?

May 5

Jun 16

May 5

Jun 16

No Change 56%

Increase 44%

Decrease 2.3%

Polymarket

$19,424 Vol.

No Change 56%

Increase 44%

Decrease 2.3%

Polymarket

$19,424 Vol.

Decrease

$6,143 Vol.

2%

No Change

$6,556 Vol.

53%

Increase

$6,725 Vol.

29%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for no change in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target at the June 15-16, 2026 meeting, with 36.5% for a 25 basis point increase and just 2.5% for a cut, reflecting persistent inflation pressures tempered by policy caution. The March 2026 CPI surged to 4.6% year-over-year—its highest since September 2023—driven by energy volatility from Middle East tensions, though trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.3%; this hot print, released April 29, has fueled hike speculation following the RBA's March hike to 4.10%. A tight labor market, with March unemployment steady at 4.3% and employment rising, supports restrictive stance, but traders anticipate a potential pause after the May 5 decision and federal budget on May 12.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$19,424
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for no change in the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate target at the June 15-16, 2026 meeting, with 36.5% for a 25 basis point increase and just 2.5% for a cut, reflecting persistent inflation pressures tempered by policy caution. The March 2026 CPI surged to 4.6% year-over-year—its highest since September 2023—driven by energy volatility from Middle East tensions, though trimmed mean inflation held steady at 3.3%; this hot print, released April 29, has fueled hike speculation following the RBA's March hike to 4.10%. A tight labor market, with March unemployment steady at 4.3% and employment rising, supports restrictive stance, but traders anticipate a potential pause after the May 5 decision and federal budget on May 12.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html

This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Volume
$19,424
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Change" at 53%, followed by "Increase" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?" has generated $19.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?" is "No Change" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Increase" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in June?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.