Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He faces narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, where he and his wife entered not guilty pleas. Venezuela’s interim government under acting President Delcy Rodríguez continues diplomatic efforts for his release amid negotiations involving U.S. sanctions relief, oil sector access, and amnesty for political prisoners. No resolution or transfer has occurred through mid-June 2026, with court proceedings and bilateral talks serving as the primary near-term catalysts that could shift the probability of release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,647,489 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
11%
$2,647,489 Vol.
December 31
$252,040 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He faces narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, where he and his wife entered not guilty pleas. Venezuela’s interim government under acting President Delcy Rodríguez continues diplomatic efforts for his release amid negotiations involving U.S. sanctions relief, oil sector access, and amnesty for political prisoners. No resolution or transfer has occurred through mid-June 2026, with court proceedings and bilateral talks serving as the primary near-term catalysts that could shift the probability of release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,647,489End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He faces narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, where he and his wife entered not guilty pleas. Venezuela’s interim government under acting President Delcy Rodríguez continues diplomatic efforts for his release amid negotiations involving U.S. sanctions relief, oil sector access, and amnesty for political prisoners. No resolution or transfer has occurred through mid-June 2026, with court proceedings and bilateral talks serving as the primary near-term catalysts that could shift the probability of release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,647,489End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal pretrial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 3, 2026 capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas. He faces narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges in the Southern District of New York, where he and his wife entered not guilty pleas. Venezuela’s interim government under acting President Delcy Rodríguez continues diplomatic efforts for his release amid negotiations involving U.S. sanctions relief, oil sector access, and amnesty for political prisoners. No resolution or transfer has occurred through mid-June 2026, with court proceedings and bilateral talks serving as the primary near-term catalysts that could shift the probability of release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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