Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York, nearly four months after his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas on narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty at a March 26 federal court appearance in New York, with trial proceedings pending amid demands for his release from Venezuelan officials like Foreign Minister Yvan Gil. Post-capture releases of political prisoners in Venezuela signal shifting domestic dynamics under an interim government, but no diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged. Traders weigh ongoing DOJ prosecution, potential appeals, and geopolitical pressures, with no scheduled trial date yet announced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,609,520 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
December 31
20%
$2,609,520 Vol.
December 31
$214,071 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York, nearly four months after his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas on narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty at a March 26 federal court appearance in New York, with trial proceedings pending amid demands for his release from Venezuelan officials like Foreign Minister Yvan Gil. Post-capture releases of political prisoners in Venezuela signal shifting domestic dynamics under an interim government, but no diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged. Traders weigh ongoing DOJ prosecution, potential appeals, and geopolitical pressures, with no scheduled trial date yet announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,609,520End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York, nearly four months after his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas on narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty at a March 26 federal court appearance in New York, with trial proceedings pending amid demands for his release from Venezuelan officials like Foreign Minister Yvan Gil. Post-capture releases of political prisoners in Venezuela signal shifting domestic dynamics under an interim government, but no diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged. Traders weigh ongoing DOJ prosecution, potential appeals, and geopolitical pressures, with no scheduled trial date yet announced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,609,520End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York, nearly four months after his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces during a military operation in Caracas on narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges. He and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty at a March 26 federal court appearance in New York, with trial proceedings pending amid demands for his release from Venezuelan officials like Foreign Minister Yvan Gil. Post-capture releases of political prisoners in Venezuela signal shifting domestic dynamics under an interim government, but no diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged. Traders weigh ongoing DOJ prosecution, potential appeals, and geopolitical pressures, with no scheduled trial date yet announced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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