President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act on January 15, 2026, to deploy military forces amid protests in Minneapolis against aggressive ICE immigration enforcement, following a fatal shooting by a federal agent, but no deployment occurred despite the standoff with state officials. A prior Supreme Court ruling had blocked alternative National Guard federalization attempts, prompting the threat. No invocations or major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with trader consensus implying low near-term odds amid ongoing immigration tensions and Posse Comitatus restrictions. Bipartisan congressional bills, including the Insurrection Act of 2025, aim to curb broad presidential authority. Escalated unrest from border security operations or urban protests could shift dynamics, though historical precedents like Eisenhower's 1957 use remain rare benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedInsurrection Act invoked by...?
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
$1,081,382 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
<1%
June 30
9%
December 31
24%
$1,081,382 Vol.
April 30
$32,587 Vol.
<1%
June 30
$68,398 Vol.
9%
December 31
$132,451 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act on January 15, 2026, to deploy military forces amid protests in Minneapolis against aggressive ICE immigration enforcement, following a fatal shooting by a federal agent, but no deployment occurred despite the standoff with state officials. A prior Supreme Court ruling had blocked alternative National Guard federalization attempts, prompting the threat. No invocations or major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with trader consensus implying low near-term odds amid ongoing immigration tensions and Posse Comitatus restrictions. Bipartisan congressional bills, including the Insurrection Act of 2025, aim to curb broad presidential authority. Escalated unrest from border security operations or urban protests could shift dynamics, though historical precedents like Eisenhower's 1957 use remain rare benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,081,382End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act on January 15, 2026, to deploy military forces amid protests in Minneapolis against aggressive ICE immigration enforcement, following a fatal shooting by a federal agent, but no deployment occurred despite the standoff with state officials. A prior Supreme Court ruling had blocked alternative National Guard federalization attempts, prompting the threat. No invocations or major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with trader consensus implying low near-term odds amid ongoing immigration tensions and Posse Comitatus restrictions. Bipartisan congressional bills, including the Insurrection Act of 2025, aim to curb broad presidential authority. Escalated unrest from border security operations or urban protests could shift dynamics, though historical precedents like Eisenhower's 1957 use remain rare benchmarks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,081,382End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act on January 15, 2026, to deploy military forces amid protests in Minneapolis against aggressive ICE immigration enforcement, following a fatal shooting by a federal agent, but no deployment occurred despite the standoff with state officials. A prior Supreme Court ruling had blocked alternative National Guard federalization attempts, prompting the threat. No invocations or major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with trader consensus implying low near-term odds amid ongoing immigration tensions and Posse Comitatus restrictions. Bipartisan congressional bills, including the Insurrection Act of 2025, aim to curb broad presidential authority. Escalated unrest from border security operations or urban protests could shift dynamics, though historical precedents like Eisenhower's 1957 use remain rare benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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