France tops trader consensus at 70% implied probability to win Group I, bolstered by reclaiming the FIFA world number one ranking in April and recent friendly victories over Brazil (2-1) and Colombia (3-1), showcasing squad depth led by Kylian Mbappé despite a recent injury scare and Hugo Ekitiké's Achilles rupture ruling him out. Norway sits at 22% on Erling Haaland's qualifying heroics (16 goals) and first World Cup appearance since 1998, though his 2026 goal drought and a March friendly loss to Netherlands temper expectations. Senegal's 9% reflects strong African form amid AFCON final controversy, while Iraq's playoff triumph over Bolivia on March 31 (2-1) earns just 0.6% as historic underdogs facing a group of death.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 70%
Norway 23%
Senegal 9%
Iraq <1%
$121,791 Vol.
$121,791 Vol.
France
70%
Norway
23%
Senegal
9%
Iraq
1%
France 70%
Norway 23%
Senegal 9%
Iraq <1%
$121,791 Vol.
$121,791 Vol.
France
70%
Norway
23%
Senegal
9%
Iraq
1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France tops trader consensus at 70% implied probability to win Group I, bolstered by reclaiming the FIFA world number one ranking in April and recent friendly victories over Brazil (2-1) and Colombia (3-1), showcasing squad depth led by Kylian Mbappé despite a recent injury scare and Hugo Ekitiké's Achilles rupture ruling him out. Norway sits at 22% on Erling Haaland's qualifying heroics (16 goals) and first World Cup appearance since 1998, though his 2026 goal drought and a March friendly loss to Netherlands temper expectations. Senegal's 9% reflects strong African form amid AFCON final controversy, while Iraq's playoff triumph over Bolivia on March 31 (2-1) earns just 0.6% as historic underdogs facing a group of death.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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