Trader consensus favors the Netherlands at 54.5% implied probability to win Group F, driven by their No. 7 FIFA ranking, defensive solidity led by Virgil van Dijk, and strong March friendlies including a 2-1 victory over Norway, positioning them ahead of Japan despite Xavi Simons' knee absence and a challenging opener on June 14. Japan's 25.5% reflects upset pedigree from 2022 group stage triumphs over Germany and Spain, bolstered by recent 1-0 friendly wins versus England and Scotland, though Endo’s foot injury raises midfield concerns. Sweden sits at 14.0% amid defensive frailties exposed in qualifiers and injuries to Alexander Isak (ankle) and Dejan Kulusevski (knee), relying on Viktor Gyökeres' playoff heroics. Tunisia's 5.3% underscores resilient counters but limited attacking depth after mixed March results against Haiti and Canada.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNetherlands 55%
Japan 26%
Sweden 14%
Tunisia 5.5%
$110,462 Vol.
$110,462 Vol.
Netherlands
55%
Japan
26%
Sweden
14%
Tunisia
5%
Netherlands 55%
Japan 26%
Sweden 14%
Tunisia 5.5%
$110,462 Vol.
$110,462 Vol.
Netherlands
55%
Japan
26%
Sweden
14%
Tunisia
5%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Netherlands at 54.5% implied probability to win Group F, driven by their No. 7 FIFA ranking, defensive solidity led by Virgil van Dijk, and strong March friendlies including a 2-1 victory over Norway, positioning them ahead of Japan despite Xavi Simons' knee absence and a challenging opener on June 14. Japan's 25.5% reflects upset pedigree from 2022 group stage triumphs over Germany and Spain, bolstered by recent 1-0 friendly wins versus England and Scotland, though Endo’s foot injury raises midfield concerns. Sweden sits at 14.0% amid defensive frailties exposed in qualifiers and injuries to Alexander Isak (ankle) and Dejan Kulusevski (knee), relying on Viktor Gyökeres' playoff heroics. Tunisia's 5.3% underscores resilient counters but limited attacking depth after mixed March results against Haiti and Canada.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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