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icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

icon for Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

$547,469 Vol.

May 12, 2026
Polymarket

$547,469 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Finland

Finland

$339,466 Vol.

99%

icon for Greece

Greece

$5,148 Vol.

97%

icon for Sweden

Sweden

$7,278 Vol.

97%

icon for Israel

Israel

$23,296 Vol.

96%

icon for Moldova

Moldova

$20,188 Vol.

92%

icon for Serbia

Serbia

$14,149 Vol.

85%

icon for Croatia

Croatia

$9,446 Vol.

78%

icon for Lithuania

Lithuania

$4,105 Vol.

67%

icon for Montenegro

Montenegro

$8,891 Vol.

57%

icon for Portugal

Portugal

$35,522 Vol.

46%

icon for Poland

Poland

$10,476 Vol.

44%

icon for Estonia

Estonia

$41,814 Vol.

40%

icon for Georgia

Georgia

$6,252 Vol.

35%

icon for Belgium

Belgium

$10,309 Vol.

30%

icon for San Marino

San Marino

$11,129 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final qualifiers centers on frontrunners like Finland's violin-driven duo Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, Sweden's Felicia with electro-pop "My System," and Greece's Akylas on dramatic "Ferto," fueled by strong pre-contest streaming metrics and expert predictions amid the May 12 showdown in Vienna. Running order revealed April 2 positions Moldova's upbeat opener Satoshi first and potential closers like Serbia's Lavina for televote momentum, while Germany and Italy's juries add swing potential. With national selections wrapped by March and rehearsals imminent, live performance risks and diaspora voting from Balkan/Nordic entries define uncertainty—watch jury shows next week for momentum shifts before the 10 spots lock in.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$547,469
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final qualifiers centers on frontrunners like Finland's violin-driven duo Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen, Sweden's Felicia with electro-pop "My System," and Greece's Akylas on dramatic "Ferto," fueled by strong pre-contest streaming metrics and expert predictions amid the May 12 showdown in Vienna. Running order revealed April 2 positions Moldova's upbeat opener Satoshi first and potential closers like Serbia's Lavina for televote momentum, while Germany and Italy's juries add swing potential. With national selections wrapped by March and rehearsals imminent, live performance risks and diaspora voting from Balkan/Nordic entries define uncertainty—watch jury shows next week for momentum shifts before the 10 spots lock in.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$547,469
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Related

icon for Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

28%
icon for Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

70%
icon for Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

91%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Finland" at 99%, followed by "Greece" at 97%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" has generated $547.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" is "Finland" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Greece" at 97%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.