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icon for California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?
Politics·California

California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?

icon for California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?
Politics·California

California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?

7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
7% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. California Assembly Bill 2624, sponsored by Asm. Mia Bonta (D), which establishes privacy protections including address confidentiality for immigration support services providers facing harassment, advanced through the Judiciary (9-3) and Public Safety (7-2) committees in mid-April 2026 amid Republican opposition labeling it the "Stop Nick Shirley Act" for potentially restricting citizen journalism after conservative influencer Nick Shirley's 2025 exposés on alleged fraud in immigrant-run child care and hospice programs. Amended April 23 and re-referred to the Assembly Appropriations Committee on April 27, the measure faces steep hurdles including party-line votes, free speech backlash amplified online, and tight legislative deadlines requiring passage through additional committees, floors, and gubernatorial action by June 30. Trader consensus at 93.5% "No" reflects these procedural barriers and partisan gridlock, with slim prospects absent rule suspensions or bipartisan compromise.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$460
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. California Assembly Bill 2624, sponsored by Asm. Mia Bonta (D), which establishes privacy protections including address confidentiality for immigration support services providers facing harassment, advanced through the Judiciary (9-3) and Public Safety (7-2) committees in mid-April 2026 amid Republican opposition labeling it the "Stop Nick Shirley Act" for potentially restricting citizen journalism after conservative influencer Nick Shirley's 2025 exposés on alleged fraud in immigrant-run child care and hospice programs. Amended April 23 and re-referred to the Assembly Appropriations Committee on April 27, the measure faces steep hurdles including party-line votes, free speech backlash amplified online, and tight legislative deadlines requiring passage through additional committees, floors, and gubernatorial action by June 30. Trader consensus at 93.5% "No" reflects these procedural barriers and partisan gridlock, with slim prospects absent rule suspensions or bipartisan compromise.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$460
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if AB 2624 “Privacy for immigration support services providers” is passed by both chambers of the California State Legislature and is signed into law by the Governor, or otherwise formally becomes law in the State of California, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "California "Stop Nick Shirley Act" becomes law by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.