Gavin McKenna's dominance as the top North American skater in NHL Central Scouting's final rankings released April 16 has solidified his position as the overwhelming trader consensus at 82% implied probability for the 2026 NHL Draft first overall pick, fueled by his stellar freshman NCAA season at Penn State with 51 points in 35 games and elite play-driving metrics despite defensive question marks. Ivar Stenberg holds second at 10.1% as the top international skater for Frölunda HC in the SHL, buoyed by his elite hockey sense and World Juniors gold, though scouts prioritize McKenna's North American production. Lower-tier probabilities for Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, and others reflect their top-5 rankings on Elite Prospects and Tankathon boards amid stable pre-lottery positioning ahead of the May 5 draw.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGavin McKenna 82%
Ivar Stenberg 10.0%
Keaton Verhoeff 1.5%
Chase Reid 1.5%
$1,255,960 Vol.
$1,255,960 Vol.
Gavin McKenna
82%
Ivar Stenberg
10%
Keaton Verhoeff
2%
Chase Reid
2%
Alberts Smits
1%
Ethan Belchetz
1%
Nikita Shcherbakov
1%
Adam Nemec
<1%
Carson Carels
<1%
Viggo Björck
<1%
Mathis Preston
<1%
Caleb Malhotra
<1%
Ryan Lin
<1%
Daxon Rudolph
<1%
Adam Novotný
<1%
Elton Hermansson
<1%
JP Hurlbert
<1%
Marcus Nordmark
<1%
Oscar Hemming
<1%
Ilya Morozov
<1%
Brooks Rogowski
<1%
Alexander Command
<1%
Tynan Lawrence
<1%
Juho Piiparinen
<1%
Yegor Shilov
<1%
William Hakansson
<1%
Nikita Klepov
<1%
Pierce Mbuyi
<1%
Ryan Roobroeck
<1%
Tomas Chrenko
<1%
Jack Hextall
<1%
Niklas Aaram-Olsen
<1%
Wyatt Cullen
<1%
Alessandro Di Iorio
<1%
Giorgos Pantelas
<1%
Jaxon Cover
<1%
Adam Goljer
<1%
Beckham Edwards
<1%
Simas Ignatavicius
<1%
Liam Ruck
<1%
Victor Plante
<1%
Luke Schairer
<1%
Casey Mutryn
<1%
Mikey Berchild
<1%
Xavier Villeneuve
<1%
Oliver Suvanto
<1%
Malte Gustafsson
<1%
Maddox Dagenais
<1%
Adam Valentini
<1%
Oscar Holmertz
<1%
Gavin McKenna 82%
Ivar Stenberg 10.0%
Keaton Verhoeff 1.5%
Chase Reid 1.5%
$1,255,960 Vol.
$1,255,960 Vol.
Gavin McKenna
82%
Ivar Stenberg
10%
Keaton Verhoeff
2%
Chase Reid
2%
Alberts Smits
1%
Ethan Belchetz
1%
Nikita Shcherbakov
1%
Adam Nemec
<1%
Carson Carels
<1%
Viggo Björck
<1%
Mathis Preston
<1%
Caleb Malhotra
<1%
Ryan Lin
<1%
Daxon Rudolph
<1%
Adam Novotný
<1%
Elton Hermansson
<1%
JP Hurlbert
<1%
Marcus Nordmark
<1%
Oscar Hemming
<1%
Ilya Morozov
<1%
Brooks Rogowski
<1%
Alexander Command
<1%
Tynan Lawrence
<1%
Juho Piiparinen
<1%
Yegor Shilov
<1%
William Hakansson
<1%
Nikita Klepov
<1%
Pierce Mbuyi
<1%
Ryan Roobroeck
<1%
Tomas Chrenko
<1%
Jack Hextall
<1%
Niklas Aaram-Olsen
<1%
Wyatt Cullen
<1%
Alessandro Di Iorio
<1%
Giorgos Pantelas
<1%
Jaxon Cover
<1%
Adam Goljer
<1%
Beckham Edwards
<1%
Simas Ignatavicius
<1%
Liam Ruck
<1%
Victor Plante
<1%
Luke Schairer
<1%
Casey Mutryn
<1%
Mikey Berchild
<1%
Xavier Villeneuve
<1%
Oliver Suvanto
<1%
Malte Gustafsson
<1%
Maddox Dagenais
<1%
Adam Valentini
<1%
Oscar Holmertz
<1%
If the 2026 NHL Draft is postponed, this market will stay open until its completion.
If the 2026 NHL draft is cancelled or the first pick is not definitively known by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL, including the live broadcast of the 2026 NHL draft; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the 2026 NHL Draft is postponed, this market will stay open until its completion.
If the 2026 NHL draft is cancelled or the first pick is not definitively known by July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL, including the live broadcast of the 2026 NHL draft; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Gavin McKenna's dominance as the top North American skater in NHL Central Scouting's final rankings released April 16 has solidified his position as the overwhelming trader consensus at 82% implied probability for the 2026 NHL Draft first overall pick, fueled by his stellar freshman NCAA season at Penn State with 51 points in 35 games and elite play-driving metrics despite defensive question marks. Ivar Stenberg holds second at 10.1% as the top international skater for Frölunda HC in the SHL, buoyed by his elite hockey sense and World Juniors gold, though scouts prioritize McKenna's North American production. Lower-tier probabilities for Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, and others reflect their top-5 rankings on Elite Prospects and Tankathon boards amid stable pre-lottery positioning ahead of the May 5 draw.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions