France and Spain lead trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at around 16% and 15% implied probabilities, buoyed by Spain's status as Euro 2024 champions and world No. 1 ranking alongside France's back-to-back final appearances and balanced squad depth headlined by peak-age Kylian Mbappé. However, a spate of injuries over the past week—including Lamine Yamal's hamstring issue for Spain, Rodrygo's absence for Brazil, and concerns for Argentina's Juan Foyth—has introduced uncertainty, preventing any team from pulling ahead decisively. The December group draw created balanced paths with potential early clashes among powers like England and Portugal, while the expanded 48-team field amplifies upset potential from dark horses like Norway and Japan, keeping the race tight six weeks from kickoff amid healthy European and South American depth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 16.1%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$942,656,484 Vol.
$942,656,484 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
France 16.1%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$942,656,484 Vol.
$942,656,484 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France and Spain lead trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at around 16% and 15% implied probabilities, buoyed by Spain's status as Euro 2024 champions and world No. 1 ranking alongside France's back-to-back final appearances and balanced squad depth headlined by peak-age Kylian Mbappé. However, a spate of injuries over the past week—including Lamine Yamal's hamstring issue for Spain, Rodrygo's absence for Brazil, and concerns for Argentina's Juan Foyth—has introduced uncertainty, preventing any team from pulling ahead decisively. The December group draw created balanced paths with potential early clashes among powers like England and Portugal, while the expanded 48-team field amplifies upset potential from dark horses like Norway and Japan, keeping the race tight six weeks from kickoff amid healthy European and South American depth.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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