A wave of injuries to star players across top contenders has fueled uncertainty in trader consensus, with Spain's Lamine Yamal ruled out for the rest of his club season and Brazil's Rodrygo sidelined by a torn ACL, narrowing the gap to France's 16.1% implied probability lead. Recent European qualifiers concluded March 31 with powerhouses like England, Portugal, and Germany securing spots via dominant wins, while play-offs handed berths to Turkey, Czechia, Sweden, and Bosnia. Defending champions Argentina hold steady at 8.6% alongside Brazil despite absences like Juan Foyth, but the completed final draw reveals balanced group stage brackets, underscoring the parity in a 48-team field and keeping the race among Europe and South America's elite tightly contested.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$944,597,099 Vol.
$944,597,099 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
France 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$944,597,099 Vol.
$944,597,099 Vol.
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A wave of injuries to star players across top contenders has fueled uncertainty in trader consensus, with Spain's Lamine Yamal ruled out for the rest of his club season and Brazil's Rodrygo sidelined by a torn ACL, narrowing the gap to France's 16.1% implied probability lead. Recent European qualifiers concluded March 31 with powerhouses like England, Portugal, and Germany securing spots via dominant wins, while play-offs handed berths to Turkey, Czechia, Sweden, and Bosnia. Defending champions Argentina hold steady at 8.6% alongside Brazil despite absences like Juan Foyth, but the completed final draw reveals balanced group stage brackets, underscoring the parity in a 48-team field and keeping the race among Europe and South America's elite tightly contested.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions