France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, just ahead of Spain at 15.3%, as traders weigh the parity among Europe's elite and South America's giants following March's qualifier conclusion and playoffs. Spain's Euro 2024 title, flawless group-topping run, and rising stars like Lamine Yamal fuel their case, while France's consistent depth under Deschamps—bolstered by Kylian Mbappé's club form—propels them atop recent odds shifts. England (11.1%), Argentina, and Brazil trail closely amid balanced group draws that delay top clashes until knockouts, with dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Morocco adding upset potential to the expanded 48-team field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$952,281,509 Vol.
$952,281,509 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
France 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$952,281,509 Vol.
$952,281,509 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
France
$26,524,588 Vol.
16%
Spain
$18,680,679 Vol.
15%
England
$15,042,300 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$16,349,878 Vol.
9%
Brazil
$17,100,130 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$17,160,586 Vol.
7%
Germany
$14,351,740 Vol.
5%
Netherlands
$16,412,180 Vol.
3%
Norway
$15,213,122 Vol.
2%
Japan
$18,232,996 Vol.
2%
Belgium
$14,747,592 Vol.
2%
Morocco
$18,344,518 Vol.
2%
Colombia
$13,841,181 Vol.
2%
USA
$30,229,837 Vol.
2%
Uruguay
$15,269,259 Vol.
1%
Mexico
$16,688,318 Vol.
1%
Croatia
$17,486,056 Vol.
1%
Switzerland
$14,216,754 Vol.
1%
Ecuador
$18,332,988 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$16,335,876 Vol.
1%
Canada
$24,625,780 Vol.
1%
Turkiye
$8,061,203 Vol.
1%
Austria
$16,821,227 Vol.
1%
Sweden
$8,192,127 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$21,754,032 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$17,987,430 Vol.
<1%
Ivory Coast
$23,264,214 Vol.
<1%
Egypt
$25,294,926 Vol.
<1%
Algeria
$23,193,728 Vol.
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
$12,277,521 Vol.
<1%
Scotland
$16,780,426 Vol.
<1%
Tunisia
$23,696,364 Vol.
<1%
Czechia
$8,871,228 Vol.
<1%
New Zealand
$29,978,498 Vol.
<1%
Jordan
$26,974,057 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$36,804,772 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$16,131,358 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistan
$39,512,209 Vol.
<1%
Panama
$14,475,039 Vol.
<1%
Iraq
$14,704,102 Vol.
<1%
South Africa
$25,346,416 Vol.
<1%
Congo DR
$16,361,224 Vol.
<1%
Cape Verde
$23,907,050 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$26,054,271 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$22,167,763 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$27,340,622 Vol.
<1%
Haiti
$16,352,178 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$26,247,497 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, just ahead of Spain at 15.3%, as traders weigh the parity among Europe's elite and South America's giants following March's qualifier conclusion and playoffs. Spain's Euro 2024 title, flawless group-topping run, and rising stars like Lamine Yamal fuel their case, while France's consistent depth under Deschamps—bolstered by Kylian Mbappé's club form—propels them atop recent odds shifts. England (11.1%), Argentina, and Brazil trail closely amid balanced group draws that delay top clashes until knockouts, with dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Morocco adding upset potential to the expanded 48-team field.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$952,281,509End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, just ahead of Spain at 15.3%, as traders weigh the parity among Europe's elite and South America's giants following March's qualifier conclusion and playoffs. Spain's Euro 2024 title, flawless group-topping run, and rising stars like Lamine Yamal fuel their case, while France's consistent depth under Deschamps—bolstered by Kylian Mbappé's club form—propels them atop recent odds shifts. England (11.1%), Argentina, and Brazil trail closely amid balanced group draws that delay top clashes until knockouts, with dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Morocco adding upset potential to the expanded 48-team field.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$952,281,509End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, just ahead of Spain at 15.3%, as traders weigh the parity among Europe's elite and South America's giants following March's qualifier conclusion and playoffs. Spain's Euro 2024 title, flawless group-topping run, and rising stars like Lamine Yamal fuel their case, while France's consistent depth under Deschamps—bolstered by Kylian Mbappé's club form—propels them atop recent odds shifts. England (11.1%), Argentina, and Brazil trail closely amid balanced group draws that delay top clashes until knockouts, with dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Morocco adding upset potential to the expanded 48-team field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions