France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, just ahead of Spain at 15.3%, as traders weigh the parity among Europe's elite and South America's giants following March's qualifier conclusion and playoffs. Spain's Euro 2024 title, flawless group-topping run, and rising stars like Lamine Yamal fuel their case, while France's consistent depth under Deschamps—bolstered by Kylian Mbappé's club form—propels them atop recent odds shifts. England (11.1%), Argentina, and Brazil trail closely amid balanced group draws that delay top clashes until knockouts, with dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Morocco adding upset potential to the expanded 48-team field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$952,675,425 Vol.
$952,675,425 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
France
16%
Spain
15%
England
11%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Morocco
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Czechia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Iran
<1%
France 16.0%
Spain 15.3%
England 11.1%
Argentina 8.6%
$952,675,425 Vol.
$952,675,425 Vol.
Jul 20, 2026
France
$26,529,021 Vol.
16%
Spain
$18,682,309 Vol.
15%
England
$15,042,942 Vol.
11%
Argentina
$16,351,239 Vol.
9%
Brazil
$17,102,829 Vol.
9%
Portugal
$17,161,797 Vol.
7%
Germany
$14,354,308 Vol.
5%
Netherlands
$16,413,407 Vol.
3%
Norway
$15,214,178 Vol.
2%
Japan
$18,245,599 Vol.
2%
Belgium
$14,747,592 Vol.
2%
Morocco
$18,348,401 Vol.
2%
Colombia
$13,841,841 Vol.
2%
USA
$30,356,556 Vol.
2%
Uruguay
$15,316,340 Vol.
1%
Mexico
$16,689,427 Vol.
1%
Croatia
$17,488,596 Vol.
1%
Switzerland
$14,217,942 Vol.
1%
Ecuador
$18,333,818 Vol.
1%
Senegal
$16,339,324 Vol.
1%
Canada
$24,629,318 Vol.
1%
Turkiye
$8,063,814 Vol.
1%
Austria
$16,823,146 Vol.
1%
Sweden
$8,194,753 Vol.
1%
South Korea
$21,755,809 Vol.
<1%
Paraguay
$17,988,733 Vol.
<1%
Ivory Coast
$23,265,788 Vol.
<1%
Egypt
$25,296,374 Vol.
<1%
Algeria
$23,196,288 Vol.
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
$12,278,727 Vol.
<1%
Scotland
$16,781,789 Vol.
<1%
Tunisia
$23,697,931 Vol.
<1%
Czechia
$8,871,571 Vol.
<1%
New Zealand
$29,981,343 Vol.
<1%
Jordan
$26,976,572 Vol.
<1%
Curaçao
$36,805,838 Vol.
<1%
Ghana
$16,132,712 Vol.
<1%
Uzbekistan
$39,513,942 Vol.
<1%
Panama
$14,476,728 Vol.
<1%
Iraq
$14,706,277 Vol.
<1%
South Africa
$25,348,824 Vol.
<1%
Congo DR
$16,362,559 Vol.
<1%
Cape Verde
$23,909,530 Vol.
<1%
Qatar
$26,056,309 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$22,168,856 Vol.
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$27,342,839 Vol.
<1%
Haiti
$16,353,280 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$26,249,041 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, just ahead of Spain at 15.3%, as traders weigh the parity among Europe's elite and South America's giants following March's qualifier conclusion and playoffs. Spain's Euro 2024 title, flawless group-topping run, and rising stars like Lamine Yamal fuel their case, while France's consistent depth under Deschamps—bolstered by Kylian Mbappé's club form—propels them atop recent odds shifts. England (11.1%), Argentina, and Brazil trail closely amid balanced group draws that delay top clashes until knockouts, with dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Morocco adding upset potential to the expanded 48-team field.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$952,675,425End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, just ahead of Spain at 15.3%, as traders weigh the parity among Europe's elite and South America's giants following March's qualifier conclusion and playoffs. Spain's Euro 2024 title, flawless group-topping run, and rising stars like Lamine Yamal fuel their case, while France's consistent depth under Deschamps—bolstered by Kylian Mbappé's club form—propels them atop recent odds shifts. England (11.1%), Argentina, and Brazil trail closely amid balanced group draws that delay top clashes until knockouts, with dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Morocco adding upset potential to the expanded 48-team field.
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$952,675,425End Date
Jul 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a slim edge at 16% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, just ahead of Spain at 15.3%, as traders weigh the parity among Europe's elite and South America's giants following March's qualifier conclusion and playoffs. Spain's Euro 2024 title, flawless group-topping run, and rising stars like Lamine Yamal fuel their case, while France's consistent depth under Deschamps—bolstered by Kylian Mbappé's club form—propels them atop recent odds shifts. England (11.1%), Argentina, and Brazil trail closely amid balanced group draws that delay top clashes until knockouts, with dark horses like Norway (Haaland-led) and Morocco adding upset potential to the expanded 48-team field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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