Trader consensus reflects near-certain stability of Iran's regime as the April 30 deadline arrives, driven by the government's successful crackdown on a 2026 uprising by April 21 via massive repression and internet shutdowns, alongside IRGC dominance maintaining military loyalty despite U.S. naval blockades and Israeli strikes. Recent diplomatic maneuvers, including Tehran's April 27-28 negotiation proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities—rejected by the U.S.—signal institutional continuity, while a pro-government rally in Tehran on April 30 underscores hardliner resilience amid economic strain. Protests from late 2025 have dissipated without defections or territorial losses, prioritizing security over collapse risks. Late-breaking scenarios like elite mutinies or rapid external escalation remain improbable given current control.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de abril?
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de abril?
Sí
$52,620,816 Vol.
$52,620,816 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sí
$52,620,816 Vol.
$52,620,816 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certain stability of Iran's regime as the April 30 deadline arrives, driven by the government's successful crackdown on a 2026 uprising by April 21 via massive repression and internet shutdowns, alongside IRGC dominance maintaining military loyalty despite U.S. naval blockades and Israeli strikes. Recent diplomatic maneuvers, including Tehran's April 27-28 negotiation proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities—rejected by the U.S.—signal institutional continuity, while a pro-government rally in Tehran on April 30 underscores hardliner resilience amid economic strain. Protests from late 2025 have dissipated without defections or territorial losses, prioritizing security over collapse risks. Late-breaking scenarios like elite mutinies or rapid external escalation remain improbable given current control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volumen
$52,620,816Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects near-certain stability of Iran's regime as the April 30 deadline arrives, driven by the government's successful crackdown on a 2026 uprising by April 21 via massive repression and internet shutdowns, alongside IRGC dominance maintaining military loyalty despite U.S. naval blockades and Israeli strikes. Recent diplomatic maneuvers, including Tehran's April 27-28 negotiation proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities—rejected by the U.S.—signal institutional continuity, while a pro-government rally in Tehran on April 30 underscores hardliner resilience amid economic strain. Protests from late 2025 have dissipated without defections or territorial losses, prioritizing security over collapse risks. Late-breaking scenarios like elite mutinies or rapid external escalation remain improbable given current control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$52,731,644Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certain stability of Iran's regime as the April 30 deadline arrives, driven by the government's successful crackdown on a 2026 uprising by April 21 via massive repression and internet shutdowns, alongside IRGC dominance maintaining military loyalty despite U.S. naval blockades and Israeli strikes. Recent diplomatic maneuvers, including Tehran's April 27-28 negotiation proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities—rejected by the U.S.—signal institutional continuity, while a pro-government rally in Tehran on April 30 underscores hardliner resilience amid economic strain. Protests from late 2025 have dissipated without defections or territorial losses, prioritizing security over collapse risks. Late-breaking scenarios like elite mutinies or rapid external escalation remain improbable given current control.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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