Tesla's Cybercab production began slowly in April 2026 at Giga Texas after initial test units rolled off earlier that year, yet trader consensus heavily favors "No" because meaningful customer sales at $30,000 or below remain unlikely before 2027. Musk has reaffirmed the sub-$30k target and direct retail availability, but initial output is constrained by an S-curve ramp, unresolved unsupervised Full Self-Driving regulatory approvals, and the need for further hardware and manufacturing cost reductions to hit that price at scale. Historical Tesla timelines for autonomy features and new vehicle launches have frequently slipped, reinforcing skepticism that 2026 will deliver volume sales meeting the exact criteria. Key near-term catalysts include late-2026 production updates, earnings commentary on pricing, and any state-level robotaxi approvals that could accelerate or delay consumer deliveries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$37,559 Vol.
$37,559 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$37,559 Vol.
$37,559 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab production began slowly in April 2026 at Giga Texas after initial test units rolled off earlier that year, yet trader consensus heavily favors "No" because meaningful customer sales at $30,000 or below remain unlikely before 2027. Musk has reaffirmed the sub-$30k target and direct retail availability, but initial output is constrained by an S-curve ramp, unresolved unsupervised Full Self-Driving regulatory approvals, and the need for further hardware and manufacturing cost reductions to hit that price at scale. Historical Tesla timelines for autonomy features and new vehicle launches have frequently slipped, reinforcing skepticism that 2026 will deliver volume sales meeting the exact criteria. Key near-term catalysts include late-2026 production updates, earnings commentary on pricing, and any state-level robotaxi approvals that could accelerate or delay consumer deliveries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$37,559Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab production began slowly in April 2026 at Giga Texas after initial test units rolled off earlier that year, yet trader consensus heavily favors "No" because meaningful customer sales at $30,000 or below remain unlikely before 2027. Musk has reaffirmed the sub-$30k target and direct retail availability, but initial output is constrained by an S-curve ramp, unresolved unsupervised Full Self-Driving regulatory approvals, and the need for further hardware and manufacturing cost reductions to hit that price at scale. Historical Tesla timelines for autonomy features and new vehicle launches have frequently slipped, reinforcing skepticism that 2026 will deliver volume sales meeting the exact criteria. Key near-term catalysts include late-2026 production updates, earnings commentary on pricing, and any state-level robotaxi approvals that could accelerate or delay consumer deliveries.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$37,559Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Cybercab production began slowly in April 2026 at Giga Texas after initial test units rolled off earlier that year, yet trader consensus heavily favors "No" because meaningful customer sales at $30,000 or below remain unlikely before 2027. Musk has reaffirmed the sub-$30k target and direct retail availability, but initial output is constrained by an S-curve ramp, unresolved unsupervised Full Self-Driving regulatory approvals, and the need for further hardware and manufacturing cost reductions to hit that price at scale. Historical Tesla timelines for autonomy features and new vehicle launches have frequently slipped, reinforcing skepticism that 2026 will deliver volume sales meeting the exact criteria. Key near-term catalysts include late-2026 production updates, earnings commentary on pricing, and any state-level robotaxi approvals that could accelerate or delay consumer deliveries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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