Traders' 73.5% implied probability for "No" on Tesla selling a Cybercab for $30,000 or less in 2026 stems from persistent skepticism over execution risks, despite production ramping at Giga Texas this April following the first unit's rollout in February. Elon Musk's mid-February confirmation of sub-$30,000 retail deliveries before 2027 has not quelled doubts fueled by Tesla's history of robotaxi delays, regulatory scrutiny from NHTSA on steerless autonomous vehicles lacking pedals or wheels, and challenges scaling the unboxed manufacturing process amid battery and chip cost pressures. While unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) expands in select cities, no retail sales pricing has materialized, with upcoming Q2 earnings and safety data releases as key catalysts that could shift sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$35,217 Vol.
$35,217 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$35,217 Vol.
$35,217 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' 73.5% implied probability for "No" on Tesla selling a Cybercab for $30,000 or less in 2026 stems from persistent skepticism over execution risks, despite production ramping at Giga Texas this April following the first unit's rollout in February. Elon Musk's mid-February confirmation of sub-$30,000 retail deliveries before 2027 has not quelled doubts fueled by Tesla's history of robotaxi delays, regulatory scrutiny from NHTSA on steerless autonomous vehicles lacking pedals or wheels, and challenges scaling the unboxed manufacturing process amid battery and chip cost pressures. While unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) expands in select cities, no retail sales pricing has materialized, with upcoming Q2 earnings and safety data releases as key catalysts that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$35,217Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders' 73.5% implied probability for "No" on Tesla selling a Cybercab for $30,000 or less in 2026 stems from persistent skepticism over execution risks, despite production ramping at Giga Texas this April following the first unit's rollout in February. Elon Musk's mid-February confirmation of sub-$30,000 retail deliveries before 2027 has not quelled doubts fueled by Tesla's history of robotaxi delays, regulatory scrutiny from NHTSA on steerless autonomous vehicles lacking pedals or wheels, and challenges scaling the unboxed manufacturing process amid battery and chip cost pressures. While unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) expands in select cities, no retail sales pricing has materialized, with upcoming Q2 earnings and safety data releases as key catalysts that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$35,217Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 73.5% implied probability for "No" on Tesla selling a Cybercab for $30,000 or less in 2026 stems from persistent skepticism over execution risks, despite production ramping at Giga Texas this April following the first unit's rollout in February. Elon Musk's mid-February confirmation of sub-$30,000 retail deliveries before 2027 has not quelled doubts fueled by Tesla's history of robotaxi delays, regulatory scrutiny from NHTSA on steerless autonomous vehicles lacking pedals or wheels, and challenges scaling the unboxed manufacturing process amid battery and chip cost pressures. While unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) expands in select cities, no retail sales pricing has materialized, with upcoming Q2 earnings and safety data releases as key catalysts that could shift sentiment.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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