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Política·Trump

¿Quién firmará el acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán?

icon for ¿Quién firmará el acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán?
Política·Trump

¿Quién firmará el acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán?

$156,451 Vol.

1 ago 2026
Polymarket

$156,451 Vol.

Polymarket

Abbas Araghchi

$7,978 Vol.

56%

JD Vance

$22,195 Vol.

56%

Shehbaz Sharif

$4,576 Vol.

48%

Jeque Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$4,958 Vol.

43%

Donald Trump

$33,042 Vol.

32%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$9,238 Vol.

27%

Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah

$2,305 Vol.

20%

Marco Rubio

$11,834 Vol.

18%

Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan

$1,069 Vol.

18%

Rey Abdullah II

$11,324 Vol.

18%

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

$1,989 Vol.

15%

Mohammed bin Salman

$4,894 Vol.

14%

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

$702 Vol.

8%

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa

$1,306 Vol.

8%

Mojtaba Khamenei

$9,897 Vol.

7%

Steve Witkoff

$6,135 Vol.

6%

Pete Hegseth

$18,121 Vol.

5%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$4,698 Vol.

4%

Ali Larijani

$4,027 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent momentum in U.S.-Iran diplomacy centers on an emerging memorandum of understanding to extend the April 2026 ceasefire for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate technical talks on Iran's nuclear program, including enrichment limits, enriched uranium removal, and verification measures. Pakistani mediators report a final agreed text, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the Islamabad framework as closer than ever, though Tehran has not confirmed an immediate signing date. President Trump has stated the agreement could be finalized and signed remotely within days, potentially including input from regional actors such as Israel and Gulf states. Any signed MOU would trigger a follow-on negotiation window, with resolution of the market likely hinging on which officials formally endorse the initial document amid ongoing verification and sanctions discussions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$156,451
Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 8:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent momentum in U.S.-Iran diplomacy centers on an emerging memorandum of understanding to extend the April 2026 ceasefire for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate technical talks on Iran's nuclear program, including enrichment limits, enriched uranium removal, and verification measures. Pakistani mediators report a final agreed text, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the Islamabad framework as closer than ever, though Tehran has not confirmed an immediate signing date. President Trump has stated the agreement could be finalized and signed remotely within days, potentially including input from regional actors such as Israel and Gulf states. Any signed MOU would trigger a follow-on negotiation window, with resolution of the market likely hinging on which officials formally endorse the initial document amid ongoing verification and sanctions discussions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$156,451
Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 8:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Quién firmará el acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 19 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Abbas Araghchi" con 56%, seguido de "JD Vance" con 56%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 56¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Quién firmará el acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" ha generado $156.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jun 12, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Quién firmará el acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán?", explora los 19 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Quién firmará el acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" es "Abbas Araghchi" con 56%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 56% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "JD Vance" con 56%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Quién firmará el acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Irán?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.