Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, where Iran has largely blocked shipping since late February, traders assign low implied probability to US Navy escorts for commercial vessels by April 30, reflecting no confirmed operations despite repeated shipping requests and official denials of readiness. Heightened US naval presence—including destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. and USS Michael Murphy transiting the strait on April 11 for mine clearance preparations, and the deployment of aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush last week, marking three carriers in the region for the first time in two decades—has focused on blockades, vessel seizures, and protection from Iranian threats rather than direct commercial escorts amid risks in the narrow waterway dubbed an Iranian "kill box." Ceasefire talks extended through April show de-escalation signals, but expiration on May 1 could spur diplomatic shifts or further military action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Estados Unidos escolta a un barco comercial a través de Ormuz por...?
¿Estados Unidos escolta a un barco comercial a través de Ormuz por...?
$4,208,297 Vol.
31 mar 2026
30 de abril
1%
$4,208,297 Vol.
30 de abril
$1,110,092 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, where Iran has largely blocked shipping since late February, traders assign low implied probability to US Navy escorts for commercial vessels by April 30, reflecting no confirmed operations despite repeated shipping requests and official denials of readiness. Heightened US naval presence—including destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. and USS Michael Murphy transiting the strait on April 11 for mine clearance preparations, and the deployment of aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush last week, marking three carriers in the region for the first time in two decades—has focused on blockades, vessel seizures, and protection from Iranian threats rather than direct commercial escorts amid risks in the narrow waterway dubbed an Iranian "kill box." Ceasefire talks extended through April show de-escalation signals, but expiration on May 1 could spur diplomatic shifts or further military action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volumen
$4,208,297Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, where Iran has largely blocked shipping since late February, traders assign low implied probability to US Navy escorts for commercial vessels by April 30, reflecting no confirmed operations despite repeated shipping requests and official denials of readiness. Heightened US naval presence—including destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. and USS Michael Murphy transiting the strait on April 11 for mine clearance preparations, and the deployment of aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush last week, marking three carriers in the region for the first time in two decades—has focused on blockades, vessel seizures, and protection from Iranian threats rather than direct commercial escorts amid risks in the narrow waterway dubbed an Iranian "kill box." Ceasefire talks extended through April show de-escalation signals, but expiration on May 1 could spur diplomatic shifts or further military action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit.
A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$4,208,297Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, where Iran has largely blocked shipping since late February, traders assign low implied probability to US Navy escorts for commercial vessels by April 30, reflecting no confirmed operations despite repeated shipping requests and official denials of readiness. Heightened US naval presence—including destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson Jr. and USS Michael Murphy transiting the strait on April 11 for mine clearance preparations, and the deployment of aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush last week, marking three carriers in the region for the first time in two decades—has focused on blockades, vessel seizures, and protection from Iranian threats rather than direct commercial escorts amid risks in the narrow waterway dubbed an Iranian "kill box." Ceasefire talks extended through April show de-escalation signals, but expiration on May 1 could spur diplomatic shifts or further military action.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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