President Trump's rejection of Iran's recent proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade—announced April 12 amid failed nuclear talks—has solidified trader consensus for delayed resolution, with May 31 leading at 43% implied probability while April 30 trades at just 1%. Trump urged Tehran to "give up" today, vowing continuation until nuclear concessions, as oil surges past $126/barrel and US gas prices climb amid disrupted shipping. Diplomatic channels via Pakistan and Russia remain stalled, with CENTCOM's May briefing on strike options and a May 1 Maritime Freedom Construct deadline looming as potential catalysts for de-escalation or escalation in this high-stakes standoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMarket reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
May 31 drops to 44%7%
Market reacts to stalled diplomacy and ongoing military tensions with a sharp
No official U.S. government or President Trump announcement lifting the blockade emerges;
April 30 dips to 2%1%
Iran maintains demands for sanctions relief and compensation before reopening the strait, solidifying market consensus on blockade continuation
Reports confirm continued U.S. naval blockade enforcement with multiple Iranian vessels turned back and no indication of blockade lifting;
April 30 drops to 8%6%
market confidence in "Yes" outcome further declines
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal,
May 31 rises to 64%4%
Iran's Foreign Minister states the blockade is an act of war and demands its lifting for negotiations to resume, while Trump warns lifting the blockade would collapse any deal, sustaining market uncertainty and a moderate
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
May 31 plunges to 60%22%
Trump authorizes US Navy to target Iranian fast boats, heightening risks of escalation and reducing chances of an imminent blockade lift, leading to a significant
President Trump orders the U.S.
April 30 drops to 14%14%
Navy to destroy any Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing blockade enforcement and military posture
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting
May 31 jumps to 82%6%
President Trump claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily and insists it will continue until a deal is reached, reinforcing the blockade's persistence and supporting higher market
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval
May 15 drops to 26%5%
Iran reimposes strict control over the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift the blockade, causing renewed chaos in global shipping and heightening the risk of naval confrontation
A Chinese-linked tanker breaches the US blockade, openly defying sanctions and complicating enforcement.
May 31 drops to 76%10%
This event introduced uncertainty about the blockade's effectiveness and duration, causing a
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of
April 30 dips to 28%2%
President Trump announces U.S. military seizure of Iranian cargo ship M/V Touska near the Strait of Hormuz after a six-hour standoff, signaling escalation and firm enforcement of the blockade
US forces seize the Iranian-flagged vessel Touska attempting to evade the blockade, marking the first direct military action enforcing the blockade.
May 31 jumps to 86%7%
This action increased the perceived durability of the blockade, pushing
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the
May 15 dips to 31%4%
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged cargo ship enforcing the blockade, while no verified US military escorts for commercial vessels occur, maintaining uncertainty about the blockade's lifting and affecting market confidence
Iran recloses the Strait of Hormuz after the US refuses to lift its blockade, firing on ships attempting passage and escalating military tensions.
May 31 drops to 79%7%
This sharp escalation caused market volatility and a
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will
April 30 plunges to 30%18%
Iran reverses its reopening and reimposes strict military control over the Strait of Hormuz, firing on ships attempting to transit and warning vessels approaching the strait will be targeted; Trump reiterates the blockade will remain in full force
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
May 15 dips to 35%1%
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to the US maintaining its blockade of Iranian ports, escalating the conflict and increasing geopolitical risk
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force
May 15 rises to 36%3%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping during a ceasefire in Lebanon, but President Trump states the US naval blockade remains in full force against Iran, creating mixed signals about the blockade's status and causing market volatility
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to
April 30 drops to 48%11%
Iran announces it will allow passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during a 10-day ceasefire related to the Israel-Lebanon truce, but Trump vows to maintain the blockade of Iranian ports
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
May 31 dips to 83%4%
Iran announces the Strait of Hormuz is completely open to commercial vessels during a Lebanon ceasefire, temporarily easing tensions and causing a brief dip in oil
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait,
May 31 jumps to 87%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the United States to lift the Hormuz blockade to avoid regional escalation, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another critical oil transit chokepoint. This raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution, pushing
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab
May 15 drops to 33%5%
Saudi Arabia publicly urges the US to lift the Hormuz blockade to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes, warning that Iran might retaliate by closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait; this adds diplomatic pressure on the US and influences market uncertainty
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and
April 30 dips to 59%2%
Shipping data reveals three vessels, including two U.S.-sanctioned tankers, successfully transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade, indicating enforcement challenges and operational loopholes
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening
May 15 rises to 38%4%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed US-Iran talks, ordering the US Navy to interdict vessels paying tolls to Iran and threatening to sink Iranian ships approaching the blockade; this escalates tensions and raises the risk of conflict in the region
U.S. military officially begins blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas at 10:00 a.m.
April 30 surges to 61%16%
ET, enforcing restrictions on vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports but allowing transit for non-Iranian ports; Iran condemns the blockade as piracy and vows forceful response
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian
May 31 surges to 82%34%
President Donald Trump announces a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran in Islamabad, aiming to pressure Tehran by blocking Iranian ports and shipping. This announcement initiated the market and caused initial
President Donald Trump announces complete U.S.
April 30 dips to 45%4%
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed peace talks with Iran, ordering the Navy to interdict all ships paying tolls to Iran and destroy mines laid in the strait
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