Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Paris's nocturnal minimum temperature on May 15, with implied probabilities clustered around 4–6°C (26–31% each) due to divergent ECMWF and ARPEGE ensemble runs amid a cool northerly airflow introducing Atlantic maritime air. Current May 14 conditions at Paris-CDG airport—daytime highs near 15°C, scattered showers, and dew points around 7°C—limit aggressive cooling, but variability hinges on overnight cloud cover and light winds, which could suppress radiative cooling to favor 5–6°C or allow clearer skies for 4°C dips. Météo-France guidance aligns with this 4–6°C range, with updates expected through evening; historical May norms (9–10°C lows) underscore the anomalously chilly pattern from recent jet stream positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en París el 15 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en París el 15 de mayo?
5°C 34.7%
4°C 25.7%
6°C 24%
7°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
-2°C o menos
<1%
-1°C
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
1%
2°C
1%
3°C
3%
4°C
26%
5°C
35%
6°C
24%
7°C
9%
8°C o más
1%
5°C 34.7%
4°C 25.7%
6°C 24%
7°C 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 may 2026
-2°C o menos
$151 Vol.
<1%
-1°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
0°C
$54 Vol.
1%
1°C
$272 Vol.
1%
2°C
$155 Vol.
1%
3°C
$85 Vol.
3%
4°C
$79 Vol.
26%
5°C
$163 Vol.
35%
6°C
$84 Vol.
24%
7°C
$51 Vol.
9%
8°C o más
$2,794 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Paris's nocturnal minimum temperature on May 15, with implied probabilities clustered around 4–6°C (26–31% each) due to divergent ECMWF and ARPEGE ensemble runs amid a cool northerly airflow introducing Atlantic maritime air. Current May 14 conditions at Paris-CDG airport—daytime highs near 15°C, scattered showers, and dew points around 7°C—limit aggressive cooling, but variability hinges on overnight cloud cover and light winds, which could suppress radiative cooling to favor 5–6°C or allow clearer skies for 4°C dips. Météo-France guidance aligns with this 4–6°C range, with updates expected through evening; historical May norms (9–10°C lows) underscore the anomalously chilly pattern from recent jet stream positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$4,106Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Paris's nocturnal minimum temperature on May 15, with implied probabilities clustered around 4–6°C (26–31% each) due to divergent ECMWF and ARPEGE ensemble runs amid a cool northerly airflow introducing Atlantic maritime air. Current May 14 conditions at Paris-CDG airport—daytime highs near 15°C, scattered showers, and dew points around 7°C—limit aggressive cooling, but variability hinges on overnight cloud cover and light winds, which could suppress radiative cooling to favor 5–6°C or allow clearer skies for 4°C dips. Météo-France guidance aligns with this 4–6°C range, with updates expected through evening; historical May norms (9–10°C lows) underscore the anomalously chilly pattern from recent jet stream positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,106Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Paris's nocturnal minimum temperature on May 15, with implied probabilities clustered around 4–6°C (26–31% each) due to divergent ECMWF and ARPEGE ensemble runs amid a cool northerly airflow introducing Atlantic maritime air. Current May 14 conditions at Paris-CDG airport—daytime highs near 15°C, scattered showers, and dew points around 7°C—limit aggressive cooling, but variability hinges on overnight cloud cover and light winds, which could suppress radiative cooling to favor 5–6°C or allow clearer skies for 4°C dips. Météo-France guidance aligns with this 4–6°C range, with updates expected through evening; historical May norms (9–10°C lows) underscore the anomalously chilly pattern from recent jet stream positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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