SpaceX's Starship program has completed just one orbital-class flight test in 2026 so far—the May 22 V3 debut using upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new pad—which achieved partial success despite engine anomalies during reentry. With Flight 13 hardware still in cryogenic testing and prior years limited to five flights amid repeated anomalies, FAA licensing, and infrastructure constraints at Starbase, trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five total launches reaching space this year. The shift to higher-cadence Block 3 vehicles and potential Florida operations could accelerate later in the period, but historical timelines and ongoing ground-test issues make a rapid ramp-up unlikely before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 52%
5-6 26%
7-8 10.8%
9-10 7.6%
$469,325 Vol.
$469,325 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
52%
5-6
26%
7-8
11%
9-10
8%
11-12
1%
13-14
2%
15-16
1%
>16
3%
<5 52%
5-6 26%
7-8 10.8%
9-10 7.6%
$469,325 Vol.
$469,325 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$93,041 Vol.
52%
5-6
$109,891 Vol.
26%
7-8
$154,520 Vol.
11%
9-10
$58,164 Vol.
8%
11-12
$6,151 Vol.
1%
13-14
$7,665 Vol.
2%
15-16
$28,574 Vol.
1%
>16
$11,320 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed just one orbital-class flight test in 2026 so far—the May 22 V3 debut using upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new pad—which achieved partial success despite engine anomalies during reentry. With Flight 13 hardware still in cryogenic testing and prior years limited to five flights amid repeated anomalies, FAA licensing, and infrastructure constraints at Starbase, trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five total launches reaching space this year. The shift to higher-cadence Block 3 vehicles and potential Florida operations could accelerate later in the period, but historical timelines and ongoing ground-test issues make a rapid ramp-up unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$469,325Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed just one orbital-class flight test in 2026 so far—the May 22 V3 debut using upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new pad—which achieved partial success despite engine anomalies during reentry. With Flight 13 hardware still in cryogenic testing and prior years limited to five flights amid repeated anomalies, FAA licensing, and infrastructure constraints at Starbase, trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five total launches reaching space this year. The shift to higher-cadence Block 3 vehicles and potential Florida operations could accelerate later in the period, but historical timelines and ongoing ground-test issues make a rapid ramp-up unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$469,325Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's Starship program has completed just one orbital-class flight test in 2026 so far—the May 22 V3 debut using upgraded Raptor 3 engines and a new pad—which achieved partial success despite engine anomalies during reentry. With Flight 13 hardware still in cryogenic testing and prior years limited to five flights amid repeated anomalies, FAA licensing, and infrastructure constraints at Starbase, trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five total launches reaching space this year. The shift to higher-cadence Block 3 vehicles and potential Florida operations could accelerate later in the period, but historical timelines and ongoing ground-test issues make a rapid ramp-up unlikely before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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