**Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 FOMC meeting around no change to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range.** May 2026 CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year (headline) and 2.9% core, with a notable 0.5% monthly increase tied to energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. The May employment report showed 172,000 payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing labor-market resilience. These prints, following earlier resilience in GDP and wages, prompted economists in a June Reuters poll to forecast steady policy through year-end, with Goldman Sachs and others shifting projected easing into 2027. CME FedWatch and related markets now embed limited odds of cuts and a rising probability of hikes. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections had allowed for modest easing, but subsequent inflation and jobs data have shifted consensus toward a higher-for-longer stance ahead of the September decision. Upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and any signals from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,286 Vol.
$285,286 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,286 Vol.
$285,286 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
$49,494 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$54,190 Vol.
8%
No change
$80,615 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$56,171 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$44,824 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 FOMC meeting around no change to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range.** May 2026 CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year (headline) and 2.9% core, with a notable 0.5% monthly increase tied to energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. The May employment report showed 172,000 payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing labor-market resilience.
These prints, following earlier resilience in GDP and wages, prompted economists in a June Reuters poll to forecast steady policy through year-end, with Goldman Sachs and others shifting projected easing into 2027. CME FedWatch and related markets now embed limited odds of cuts and a rising probability of hikes. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections had allowed for modest easing, but subsequent inflation and jobs data have shifted consensus toward a higher-for-longer stance ahead of the September decision.
Upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and any signals from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$285,286Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 FOMC meeting around no change to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range.** May 2026 CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year (headline) and 2.9% core, with a notable 0.5% monthly increase tied to energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. The May employment report showed 172,000 payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing labor-market resilience.
These prints, following earlier resilience in GDP and wages, prompted economists in a June Reuters poll to forecast steady policy through year-end, with Goldman Sachs and others shifting projected easing into 2027. CME FedWatch and related markets now embed limited odds of cuts and a rising probability of hikes. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections had allowed for modest easing, but subsequent inflation and jobs data have shifted consensus toward a higher-for-longer stance ahead of the September decision.
Upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and any signals from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$285,286Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 FOMC meeting around no change to the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range.** May 2026 CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year (headline) and 2.9% core, with a notable 0.5% monthly increase tied to energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. The May employment report showed 172,000 payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.3%, reinforcing labor-market resilience. These prints, following earlier resilience in GDP and wages, prompted economists in a June Reuters poll to forecast steady policy through year-end, with Goldman Sachs and others shifting projected easing into 2027. CME FedWatch and related markets now embed limited odds of cuts and a rising probability of hikes. The March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections had allowed for modest easing, but subsequent inflation and jobs data have shifted consensus toward a higher-for-longer stance ahead of the September decision. Upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and any signals from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting remain the primary near-term catalysts that could alter probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes