Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations for no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Inflation readings, including headline CPI near 3.8% and core measures above the 2% target, remain elevated amid higher commodity prices and geopolitical supply pressures, while the May jobs report showed solid payroll gains of 172,000 and unemployment holding near 4.3%. Federal Reserve projections and recent statements indicate slower-than-expected disinflation progress, with the median dot plot anticipating only one 25 basis point cut for the full year. This combination of resilient labor market conditions and sticky price pressures has kept the policy rate range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, producing the current market consensus favoring a hold over modest easing or tightening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,625 Vol.
$285,625 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8.2%
50+ bps decrease 2.1%
$285,625 Vol.
$285,625 Vol.
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
$49,597 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$54,306 Vol.
8%
No change
$80,616 Vol.
74%
25 bps increase
$56,283 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$44,824 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations for no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Inflation readings, including headline CPI near 3.8% and core measures above the 2% target, remain elevated amid higher commodity prices and geopolitical supply pressures, while the May jobs report showed solid payroll gains of 172,000 and unemployment holding near 4.3%. Federal Reserve projections and recent statements indicate slower-than-expected disinflation progress, with the median dot plot anticipating only one 25 basis point cut for the full year. This combination of resilient labor market conditions and sticky price pressures has kept the policy rate range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, producing the current market consensus favoring a hold over modest easing or tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Volumen
$285,625Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations for no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Inflation readings, including headline CPI near 3.8% and core measures above the 2% target, remain elevated amid higher commodity prices and geopolitical supply pressures, while the May jobs report showed solid payroll gains of 172,000 and unemployment holding near 4.3%. Federal Reserve projections and recent statements indicate slower-than-expected disinflation progress, with the median dot plot anticipating only one 25 basis point cut for the full year. This combination of resilient labor market conditions and sticky price pressures has kept the policy rate range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, producing the current market consensus favoring a hold over modest easing or tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$285,625Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced trader expectations for no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Inflation readings, including headline CPI near 3.8% and core measures above the 2% target, remain elevated amid higher commodity prices and geopolitical supply pressures, while the May jobs report showed solid payroll gains of 172,000 and unemployment holding near 4.3%. Federal Reserve projections and recent statements indicate slower-than-expected disinflation progress, with the median dot plot anticipating only one 25 basis point cut for the full year. This combination of resilient labor market conditions and sticky price pressures has kept the policy rate range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, producing the current market consensus favoring a hold over modest easing or tightening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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