Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's steady 3.50%-3.75% target range affirmed at the April 28-29 policy session—Chair Powell's final one amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.9% monthly surge, far exceeding forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience that has curbed rate-cut expectations. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including April CPI on May 12, May nonfarm payrolls, and June/July FOMC meetings for shifts in monetary policy path versus official dot plot projections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
16 sep 2026
50+ bps decrease
9%
25 bps decrease
19%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
4%
$1,322 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
$90 Vol.
9%
25 bps decrease
$77 Vol.
19%
No change
$781 Vol.
73%
25 bps increase
$215 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$159 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's steady 3.50%-3.75% target range affirmed at the April 28-29 policy session—Chair Powell's final one amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.9% monthly surge, far exceeding forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience that has curbed rate-cut expectations. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including April CPI on May 12, May nonfarm payrolls, and June/July FOMC meetings for shifts in monetary policy path versus official dot plot projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volumen
$1,322Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's steady 3.50%-3.75% target range affirmed at the April 28-29 policy session—Chair Powell's final one amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.9% monthly surge, far exceeding forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience that has curbed rate-cut expectations. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including April CPI on May 12, May nonfarm payrolls, and June/July FOMC meetings for shifts in monetary policy path versus official dot plot projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$1,322Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 83% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's steady 3.50%-3.75% target range affirmed at the April 28-29 policy session—Chair Powell's final one amid persistent inflation pressures. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.9% monthly surge, far exceeding forecasts, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, signaling labor market resilience that has curbed rate-cut expectations. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including April CPI on May 12, May nonfarm payrolls, and June/July FOMC meetings for shifts in monetary policy path versus official dot plot projections.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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