The Federal Reserve's April 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—marking its third consecutive pause—drives Polymarket's 87.5% implied probability for no change in July, reflecting trader consensus amid sticky inflation and economic resilience. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a 178,000 gain, pushing back rate-cut expectations as 10-year Treasury yields climbed toward 4.4%. A slim 7.5% odds on a 25 basis point decrease captures lingering easing hopes, but tail risks for hikes remain minimal below 5%. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 88%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 8%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.3%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.1%
$4,838,752 Vol.
$4,838,752 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
8%
Sin cambio
88%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambio 88%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 8%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.3%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.1%
$4,838,752 Vol.
$4,838,752 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$374,246 Vol.
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$242,599 Vol.
8%
Sin cambio
$636,291 Vol.
88%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,217,304 Vol.
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$368,311 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Reserve's April 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—marking its third consecutive pause—drives Polymarket's 87.5% implied probability for no change in July, reflecting trader consensus amid sticky inflation and economic resilience. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a 178,000 gain, pushing back rate-cut expectations as 10-year Treasury yields climbed toward 4.4%. A slim 7.5% odds on a 25 basis point decrease captures lingering easing hopes, but tail risks for hikes remain minimal below 5%. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$4,838,752Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Federal Reserve's April 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—marking its third consecutive pause—drives Polymarket's 87.5% implied probability for no change in July, reflecting trader consensus amid sticky inflation and economic resilience. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a 178,000 gain, pushing back rate-cut expectations as 10-year Treasury yields climbed toward 4.4%. A slim 7.5% odds on a 25 basis point decrease captures lingering easing hopes, but tail risks for hikes remain minimal below 5%. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$4,838,752Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal Reserve's April 29 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%—marking its third consecutive pause—drives Polymarket's 87.5% implied probability for no change in July, reflecting trader consensus amid sticky inflation and economic resilience. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024, while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with a 178,000 gain, pushing back rate-cut expectations as 10-year Treasury yields climbed toward 4.4%. A slim 7.5% odds on a 25 basis point decrease captures lingering easing hopes, but tail risks for hikes remain minimal below 5%. Key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes