Polymarket traders price an 87.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus around the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range amid resilient economic conditions. The April 28-29 policy statement held rates steady—Fed Chair Powell's final meeting—noting elevated near-term inflation expectations after March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year and core PCE hit 3.5%, both hotter than prior months. Labor data remains robust, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs in March and jobless claims hovering near 214,000. Futures markets imply a flat rate path through mid-2026, with the June 16-17 FOMC and April CPI release on May 12 as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 88%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 8%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.3%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.1%
$4,441,175 Vol.
$4,441,175 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
8%
Sin cambio
88%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambio 88%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 8%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.3%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos 2.1%
$4,441,175 Vol.
$4,441,175 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$316,695 Vol.
2%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$205,691 Vol.
8%
Sin cambio
$444,127 Vol.
88%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,158,379 Vol.
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$316,282 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 87.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus around the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range amid resilient economic conditions. The April 28-29 policy statement held rates steady—Fed Chair Powell's final meeting—noting elevated near-term inflation expectations after March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year and core PCE hit 3.5%, both hotter than prior months. Labor data remains robust, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs in March and jobless claims hovering near 214,000. Futures markets imply a flat rate path through mid-2026, with the June 16-17 FOMC and April CPI release on May 12 as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$4,441,175Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 87.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus around the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range amid resilient economic conditions. The April 28-29 policy statement held rates steady—Fed Chair Powell's final meeting—noting elevated near-term inflation expectations after March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year and core PCE hit 3.5%, both hotter than prior months. Labor data remains robust, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs in March and jobless claims hovering near 214,000. Futures markets imply a flat rate path through mid-2026, with the June 16-17 FOMC and April CPI release on May 12 as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$4,441,175Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price an 87.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting consensus around the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds target range amid resilient economic conditions. The April 28-29 policy statement held rates steady—Fed Chair Powell's final meeting—noting elevated near-term inflation expectations after March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year and core PCE hit 3.5%, both hotter than prior months. Labor data remains robust, with nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs in March and jobless claims hovering near 214,000. Futures markets imply a flat rate path through mid-2026, with the June 16-17 FOMC and April CPI release on May 12 as key near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment if inflation reaccelerates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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