Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to "No" for Elon Musk winning a $10 billion-plus personal settlement against Sam Altman and OpenAI, anchored by Musk's April 2026 amendment pledging any damages—potentially $130 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm, explicitly forgoing personal gain while seeking Altman's removal from the board and a unwind of the for-profit structure. The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, now in its second week with Musk facing tense cross-examination over OpenAI's mission drift from open-source AI for humanity to a capped-profit model fueling ChatGPT's dominance, shows no settlement signals amid dismissed fraud claims. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects OpenAI's Microsoft-backed resilience in the AI race. Realistic shifts could arise from surprise pre-verdict negotiations, though Musk's xAI rivalry diminishes that likelihood.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$25,054 Vol.
$25,054 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$25,054 Vol.
$25,054 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to "No" for Elon Musk winning a $10 billion-plus personal settlement against Sam Altman and OpenAI, anchored by Musk's April 2026 amendment pledging any damages—potentially $130 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm, explicitly forgoing personal gain while seeking Altman's removal from the board and a unwind of the for-profit structure. The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, now in its second week with Musk facing tense cross-examination over OpenAI's mission drift from open-source AI for humanity to a capped-profit model fueling ChatGPT's dominance, shows no settlement signals amid dismissed fraud claims. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects OpenAI's Microsoft-backed resilience in the AI race. Realistic shifts could arise from surprise pre-verdict negotiations, though Musk's xAI rivalry diminishes that likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volumen
$25,054Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to "No" for Elon Musk winning a $10 billion-plus personal settlement against Sam Altman and OpenAI, anchored by Musk's April 2026 amendment pledging any damages—potentially $130 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm, explicitly forgoing personal gain while seeking Altman's removal from the board and a unwind of the for-profit structure. The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, now in its second week with Musk facing tense cross-examination over OpenAI's mission drift from open-source AI for humanity to a capped-profit model fueling ChatGPT's dominance, shows no settlement signals amid dismissed fraud claims. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects OpenAI's Microsoft-backed resilience in the AI race. Realistic shifts could arise from surprise pre-verdict negotiations, though Musk's xAI rivalry diminishes that likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$25,054Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to "No" for Elon Musk winning a $10 billion-plus personal settlement against Sam Altman and OpenAI, anchored by Musk's April 2026 amendment pledging any damages—potentially $130 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm, explicitly forgoing personal gain while seeking Altman's removal from the board and a unwind of the for-profit structure. The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, now in its second week with Musk facing tense cross-examination over OpenAI's mission drift from open-source AI for humanity to a capped-profit model fueling ChatGPT's dominance, shows no settlement signals amid dismissed fraud claims. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects OpenAI's Microsoft-backed resilience in the AI race. Realistic shifts could arise from surprise pre-verdict negotiations, though Musk's xAI rivalry diminishes that likelihood.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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