The European Central Bank's Governing Council unanimously decided on April 30, 2026, to hold its three key interest rates unchanged—including the deposit facility at 2%, main refinancing operations at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility at 2.40%—driving Polymarket's "No change" outcome to virtual certainty at 100%. This third consecutive hold stems from elevated eurozone inflation at 3.0%, slowing growth, and stagflation risks amplified by Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher, prompting a data-dependent "wait-and-see" stance from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Markets had priced in the pause amid prior signals of potential June hikes. With the official announcement released, resolution appears locked, barring extraordinary clarifications on rate metrics or procedural anomalies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTipos de interés del BCE: abril de 2026
Tipos de interés del BCE: abril de 2026
Sin cambios 100.0%
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Aumento <1%
$1,117,611 Vol.
$1,117,611 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambios
100%
Aumento
<1%
Sin cambios 100.0%
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Aumento <1%
$1,117,611 Vol.
$1,117,611 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Bajada de más de 50 puntos básicos
$183,805 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$147,664 Vol.
<1%
Sin cambios
$427,155 Vol.
100%
Aumento
$360,428 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The European Central Bank's Governing Council unanimously decided on April 30, 2026, to hold its three key interest rates unchanged—including the deposit facility at 2%, main refinancing operations at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility at 2.40%—driving Polymarket's "No change" outcome to virtual certainty at 100%. This third consecutive hold stems from elevated eurozone inflation at 3.0%, slowing growth, and stagflation risks amplified by Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher, prompting a data-dependent "wait-and-see" stance from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Markets had priced in the pause amid prior signals of potential June hikes. With the official announcement released, resolution appears locked, barring extraordinary clarifications on rate metrics or procedural anomalies.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$1,117,611Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The European Central Bank's Governing Council unanimously decided on April 30, 2026, to hold its three key interest rates unchanged—including the deposit facility at 2%, main refinancing operations at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility at 2.40%—driving Polymarket's "No change" outcome to virtual certainty at 100%. This third consecutive hold stems from elevated eurozone inflation at 3.0%, slowing growth, and stagflation risks amplified by Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher, prompting a data-dependent "wait-and-see" stance from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Markets had priced in the pause amid prior signals of potential June hikes. With the official announcement released, resolution appears locked, barring extraordinary clarifications on rate metrics or procedural anomalies.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$1,117,611Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Sin disputa
Resultado final: Sí
The European Central Bank's Governing Council unanimously decided on April 30, 2026, to hold its three key interest rates unchanged—including the deposit facility at 2%, main refinancing operations at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility at 2.40%—driving Polymarket's "No change" outcome to virtual certainty at 100%. This third consecutive hold stems from elevated eurozone inflation at 3.0%, slowing growth, and stagflation risks amplified by Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher, prompting a data-dependent "wait-and-see" stance from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Markets had priced in the pause amid prior signals of potential June hikes. With the official announcement released, resolution appears locked, barring extraordinary clarifications on rate metrics or procedural anomalies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes