Skip to main content
icon for Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?
Geopolítica·Estrecho De Ormuz

Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?

icon for Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?
Geopolítica·Estrecho De Ormuz

Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?

1% probabilidad
Polymarket

$3,770 Vol.

1% probabilidad
Polymarket

$3,770 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research. Trader consensus prices "No" at 99% as the April 30, 2026, deadline approaches without any confirmation from Citrini Research that Analyst #3 has physically re-entered the Middle East this month. Following his high-risk March field trip to the Strait of Hormuz—detailed in an April 5 report involving a speedboat journey past Iranian patrol boats, Omani Coast Guard detention, and verification of oil tanker traffic amid regional tensions—no announcements, social media signals, or logistical indications of a repeat visit have emerged in the past 30 days. Such near-certainty reflects the expedition's extraordinary risks and lack of catalysts, though a last-minute unannounced trip with official confirmation before 11:59 PM ET could still trigger a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Volumen
$3,770
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research. Trader consensus prices "No" at 99% as the April 30, 2026, deadline approaches without any confirmation from Citrini Research that Analyst #3 has physically re-entered the Middle East this month. Following his high-risk March field trip to the Strait of Hormuz—detailed in an April 5 report involving a speedboat journey past Iranian patrol boats, Omani Coast Guard detention, and verification of oil tanker traffic amid regional tensions—no announcements, social media signals, or logistical indications of a repeat visit have emerged in the past 30 days. Such near-certainty reflects the expedition's extraordinary risks and lack of catalysts, though a last-minute unannounced trip with official confirmation before 11:59 PM ET could still trigger a "Yes" resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.
Volumen
$3,770
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Citrini Research confirms that Citrini Analyst #3 has physically entered the Middle East by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Entering the Middle East is defined as entrance into the terrestrial or maritime territory of any of the following countries/territories: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, West Bank, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Turkey (Türkiye), Iran, Egypt. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Citrini Research.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 1% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 1¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 1% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 8, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?" es 1% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 1% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.