U.S. intelligence assessments from mid-March 2026 concluded China is not planning a Taiwan invasion before 2027, favoring unification without force amid ongoing People's Liberation Army purges that have disrupted command structures and exercise schedules. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects this, reinforced by routine gray-zone tactics like April air and naval incursions near Taiwan—deemed "reasonable" by Beijing—without escalation into clash, even as U.S.-Philippines Balikatan drills deployed missiles nearby last week. Taiwan enhances detection of small craft and reservist mobilization, while China courts opposition Kuomintang ahead of 2028 elections. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or internal crises could alter odds, but deterrence and economic pressures sustain low-risk positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,739,343 Vol.
$1,739,343 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$1,739,343 Vol.
$1,739,343 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence assessments from mid-March 2026 concluded China is not planning a Taiwan invasion before 2027, favoring unification without force amid ongoing People's Liberation Army purges that have disrupted command structures and exercise schedules. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects this, reinforced by routine gray-zone tactics like April air and naval incursions near Taiwan—deemed "reasonable" by Beijing—without escalation into clash, even as U.S.-Philippines Balikatan drills deployed missiles nearby last week. Taiwan enhances detection of small craft and reservist mobilization, while China courts opposition Kuomintang ahead of 2028 elections. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or internal crises could alter odds, but deterrence and economic pressures sustain low-risk positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volumen
$1,739,343Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence assessments from mid-March 2026 concluded China is not planning a Taiwan invasion before 2027, favoring unification without force amid ongoing People's Liberation Army purges that have disrupted command structures and exercise schedules. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects this, reinforced by routine gray-zone tactics like April air and naval incursions near Taiwan—deemed "reasonable" by Beijing—without escalation into clash, even as U.S.-Philippines Balikatan drills deployed missiles nearby last week. Taiwan enhances detection of small craft and reservist mobilization, while China courts opposition Kuomintang ahead of 2028 elections. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or internal crises could alter odds, but deterrence and economic pressures sustain low-risk positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,739,343Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence assessments from mid-March 2026 concluded China is not planning a Taiwan invasion before 2027, favoring unification without force amid ongoing People's Liberation Army purges that have disrupted command structures and exercise schedules. Trader consensus at 91.5% for "No" reflects this, reinforced by routine gray-zone tactics like April air and naval incursions near Taiwan—deemed "reasonable" by Beijing—without escalation into clash, even as U.S.-Philippines Balikatan drills deployed missiles nearby last week. Taiwan enhances detection of small craft and reservist mobilization, while China courts opposition Kuomintang ahead of 2028 elections. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or internal crises could alter odds, but deterrence and economic pressures sustain low-risk positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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