Banksy’s established pattern of multiple annual street interventions, including confirmed murals in London and Marseille throughout 2025, underpins the strong 82.5% market-implied odds for at least one new piece by year-end. Traders cite the artist’s history of surprise drops tied to holidays, political moments, or urban sites, with the six-plus months remaining offering ample runway for fresh work. Recent activity, such as the December 2025 stargazing-children mural in Bayswater and the September Royal Courts of Justice piece, reinforces expectations of continued output. While anonymity and timing introduce uncertainty, historical frequency and cultural incentives for visibility tilt sentiment heavily toward yes.