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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

icon for Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

Ilia Topuria 62%

Arman Tsarukyan 4%

Justin Gaethje 4.0%

Charles Oliveira 1.4%

Polymarket

$21,191 Vol.

Ilia Topuria 62%

Arman Tsarukyan 4%

Justin Gaethje 4.0%

Charles Oliveira 1.4%

Polymarket

$21,191 Vol.

Ilia Topuria

$7,353 Vol.

71%

Arman Tsarukyan

$2,040 Vol.

21%

Charles Oliveira

$1,671 Vol.

1%

Max Holloway

$1,294 Vol.

7%

Justin Gaethje

$1,832 Vol.

8%

Paddy Pimblett

$2,395 Vol.

<1%

Dan Hooker

$748 Vol.

<1%

Mateusz Gamrot

$727 Vol.

<1%

Benoît Saint Denis

$1,343 Vol.

12%

Rafael Fiziev

$838 Vol.

1%

Renato Moicano

$948 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Reigning UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria dominates trader consensus at 72% implied probability to hold the title through year-end, bolstered by his first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira to claim the vacant belt at UFC 317 last summer and plans for unification against interim titleholder Justin Gaethje, following Topuria's early-2026 hiatus. Renato Moicano's recent second-round submission of Chris Duncan in the UFC Fight Night 272 main event extends his win streak to four, elevating his 16% odds as a grappling threat. Arman Tsarukyan (14.5%) stays sharp via wrestling bouts like upcoming RAF 09, while Benoît Saint Denis (11.3%) rides four straight finishes, including a January KO of Dan Hooker, positioning these contenders amid a fluid division.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$21,191
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Reigning UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria dominates trader consensus at 72% implied probability to hold the title through year-end, bolstered by his first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira to claim the vacant belt at UFC 317 last summer and plans for unification against interim titleholder Justin Gaethje, following Topuria's early-2026 hiatus. Renato Moicano's recent second-round submission of Chris Duncan in the UFC Fight Night 272 main event extends his win streak to four, elevating his 16% odds as a grappling threat. Arman Tsarukyan (14.5%) stays sharp via wrestling bouts like upcoming RAF 09, while Benoît Saint Denis (11.3%) rides four straight finishes, including a January KO of Dan Hooker, positioning these contenders amid a fluid division.

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Volume
$21,191
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ilia Topuria" at 71%, followed by "Renato Moicano" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" has generated $21.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Ilia Topuria" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renato Moicano" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.